Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDeKay  Well, he might have peeled with total air, too, and try to push me off high cards or a pair of K.
Well, as for the results... I thought about it quite some time and then decided, that I don't rep a hand, so he can 1, valuebet verrry light or 2, bluff a wide range. Since I had the impression that he was aggro, I thought that he was able to play back vs. the flop raise. So I called and he showed 44. |
The fact that he showed 44 tells me he probably thought you had 55-JJ or KJ/KQ/KTs turned into pair and thought he could get you to lay it down. If he really believed you had a draw he wouldve check/called.
But you couldn't have know that before hand unless you had a read.
I don't see how you make these assumptions about villain just because you would have done that.
And like I said even if he does that sometimes, he is not going to do that 100% of the time and I have no idea on what read you base this.
I guess if you are convinced he will call that flop C/R 100% of the time with 44/55/66/88 AND bluff these 100% of the time on the river, it is ok.
Keep in mind he is probably shoving a lot of flushdraws on the flop, and the ones he isn't he couldve paired the K or have an A with them (KdQd, KdJd, AdXd, KdTd, ...) which he certainly could have played this way and which he wouldn't be betting on the river (except for Ax with good kicker or paired kicker)
Board: 3d As 2d Kc 7c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.294% 35.29% 00.00% 24 0.00 { Ad9h }
Hand 1: 64.706% 64.71% 00.00% 44 0.00 { KK+, 88-22, ATs+, A7s, As3s, As2s, ATo+ }
But if you think he will rebluff the flop instead of going for a float OOP some % of the time OR if you think he will not call the flop and bluff the river with 44/55/66/88 on the river it is bad:
Board: 3d As 2d Kc 7c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.833% 20.83% 00.00% 10 0.00 { Ad9h }
Hand 1: 79.167% 79.17% 00.00% 38 0.00 { KK+, 8d8h, 8d8s, 8h8s, 7d7h, 7d7s, 7h7s, 6d6h, 6d6s, 6h6s, 5d5h, 5h5s, 4d4h, 4h4s, 33-22, ATs+, A7s, As3s, As2s, AJo+ }
I see that its probably closer than I thought, but still looks like an obvious fold.