[nawhead]

He had A5, amirite?

I don't know about the flop. I sorta wanna slowplay here. Not much he could call with if he's got the usual KT, A9 BB defend hands.

If I slowplay, I probably bet/bet turn,river, folding to a river c/r.

If I bet flop, I think firing turn OK with the flush draw out there. But once called on turn, and Ten on river... and villain has less than 1/2 pot. If he's been sitting around for a while, I dunno if he's thinking, "whatever, I'm just gonna felt my A7 here, I'm done playing."

It's a little weak. But it comes down to the Ten. Would villain think I'm gonna use that Ten as a scare card? I wouldn't. So I'm not. So if I bet again river, I don't think I get called by A7. 88,99, well I believe 88,99 would see my turn bet as trying to take his pot and c/r AI turn. TT got me, AA/KK/QQ still good. Sets, 2 pairs, straights whatever all good.

Nothing I can rep with his stack size like I'm bluffing. I can only value bet. And I think with that Ten I'm giving my hand away since that's not slowing me down and folding out a lot of hands that might have called a blank, deuce, river.

But it's so weak to check. We got an overpair, he's all just checking and calling... giving us no real information.

Bet his stack on river, if he got us beat, it's a cooler. Nothing really we can do cause checking overpairs on fairly innocuous boards is missing too much value at these stakes.

Argh yeah I hate this spot. I really feel like I'm getting called by better majority of time. I hate that ten. We got a showdown hand. I don't know how light he can call. Let's try a pokerstove to see if math helps.

I think he's either going to get calldowny and just disregard the Ten and call with a 7 or is slowplaying.

Board: 7h 3s 2d 4s Td

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.229% 27.23% 00.00% 1805856 0.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 72.771% 72.79% 00.00% 4826775 0.00 { QQ+, TT, 77, A7s, A5s, 87s, 75s+, 65s }


Gross. It looks like a good spot but then we only have 27% equity. I was pretty liberal in putting in a lot of 7's in his range too. A breakeven spot with an overpair on river? How is this possible?

JJ... I HATE JACKS. LOL.

[edit 2]
Still, you can't check this river. I forget that sometimes villains at these stakes show up with 45 or K7 or something because there's specifically no real scare card and put you on AK. Better range.

Board: 7h 3s 2d 4s Td

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.644% 29.65% 00.00% 2380499 0.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 70.356% 70.37% 00.00% 5650154 0.00 { QQ+, TT, 77, 33-22, A7s, A5s, K7s, 87s, 75s+, 65s, 5h4h, 5s4s }

Good equity vs a guy with 1/2 pot stack. But you'll surprisingly be beat here a lot and it feels like a thin value bet spot for sure.


[edit 3]
Now same type board but Ten hi flop. Our equity changes dramatically. Much easier spot.

Board: Td 7h 3s 2d 4s

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.936% 37.94% 00.00% 2634057 0.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 62.064% 62.08% 00.00% 4309732 0.00 { QQ+, TT, 77, 33-22, ATs, A7s, A5s, KTs, QTs, JTs, 65s, ATo }

Wierd that villain calls with hands that are better relative to the board, but our equity goes up, eh?