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Old 09-01-2009, 03:18 AM
Spinage Spinage is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 217
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if hes only raising 6% of his hands pre, you are so far ahead on that flop that you should be raising for value, and probably calling a shove. Only hands that beat you on that flop are AA and KK.

I am more optimistic against a 9/6 on this flop than a looser player who would connect a lot better. Look at his range in pokerstove: 88+,ATs+,KQs,AKo

No sevens, four overpairs that are worse than your over pair (which you can usually expect a call or a raise from), no straight flush draws.. only one combo of flush draw with two overs (which is 50/50 on a paired board).

So the only hands that are ahead of you are AA and KK, where as 88/99/TT/JJ/AhTh-AhKh/ maybe KhQh will call your raise and possible even raise to get it in on this drawy board. There are few hands in his range he won't want to get it in with, but only 2 that crush you.

Code:
Board: 7c 5h 7h
Dead:  

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	38.096%  	36.93% 	01.16% 	         89943 	     2835.00   { 88+, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, KhQh }
Hand 1: 	61.904%  	60.74% 	01.16% 	        147927 	     2835.00   { QQ }
Raise the flop and get it in hopefully. As played, at least bet the turn when he checks to get value from flush draws, AJ and possibly TT (though he might just fold seeing how you've been playing)

As for the pre-flop, I don't really like it.. I mean, if he's raising like 2% of hands then fine, be cautious (though your still flipping with more than half of his range... AA/KK is 0.9%), but 6% is enough for a value raise IP.. though if he 4bet I'd probably fold.

Last edited by Spinage; 09-01-2009 at 03:28 AM.
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