Quote:
Originally Posted by chinz  So, 3betting pre saves you money when you're beat and earns you money when you have him beat. Sounds like only right way to play this, right?
As played, why the f do you check the turn? |
What happens when nitty guy slowplays AA oop and checks the flop to us in a 3bet pot? Do we still save money? I think we're more likely to reverse valuetown ourselves because we define our range perfectly for villain who easily put us on JJ+ now and may even fold 88-TT on any low flop, or at most pay 1 street and quit.
And no way does a guy like this get it in on the flop with 66-TT vs me. The problem is I'm playing 12/10 and play like grandma (obvious from this post, eh?). That's why this hand is playing out like this. I really believe he'd even start check/calling with AA against me.
And I check the turn because guys like this have a setmining mentality even with something like 88-TT on this type of board and don't want to be in a position of check-calling with an underpair 2 streets in a row (and I have no image of double barreling so I don't get value 2 streets ever here).
I also think he's far more likely to call a bet on a safe river with 88-TT than put me on a semibluff on the turn. That's a super strong line from me when 9/6 guy's opening ranges is such that 60-70% of his hands are check-calling or check-raising this turn and I'm still like 50/50 when called and instafolding when c/r'd? Screw that. I'm checking here all day.
I'm not trying to get a significant part of my stack in here just like I'm not trying to get my stack in with QQ preflop vs this guy when there are far easier spots coming.
I guess the questions I'm asking myself before I act preflop is
1. What are the odds I have the best hand and villain will pay off 3 streets or a 3bet and stackoff postflop with less?
2. What are the odds I have worst hand (now or after the flop) and stackoff to him if I start getting the pot big right now?
So I very likely have the best hand here. But the times I don't, I'm stacking off vs this guy almost always if I put in a 3bet. But at the same time, I don't think he's stacking off vs me when he has a worse hand. So it serves my best interest to keep the pot size the same as when villain has the worst hand vs me, and that's gonna keep me in the black over the long run.
So say 7/10 times I have the best hand. I think I'm gonna get 20bb avg from him if I 3bet (a lot of check/folds on flop obviously, some pf open/folds). I have worse 3/10 times (AA,KK, he flops a set), he's gonna get 60bb+ from me especially if I 3bet.
+140 ahead
-180 behind
See my thought process now?
We can tinker with the numbers for the times he flops an open-ender with a small pp or flush draw with AKs or whatnot, but I'm just simplifying. Obviously if we play good postflop we maximize our wins postflop anyway.
That old maxim in poker is "maximize our profit when ahead, minimize our loss when behind." This mentality of
auto3bet any opponent with big pair doesn't achieve this, in this spot, vs this guy, I'm sure of it.
Against guys who play this tight, we make it very easy for them when we 3bet them unless we're playing very laggy. I don't play laggy so I tailor my game to maximize my profits according to my style.
Doh... I forgot I started the hand with <60bb's. My thinking applies more to 100bb stacks or deeper. So hopefully you'll take this as more a theoretical discussion now... heh.