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Old 10-24-2009, 04:48 PM
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AdrienD AdrienD is offline
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dont like flop call; you have no reason to believe he will check/raise bluff this w complete misses.

you are either slightly ahead or way behind on flop imo.
im bet/folding here; and checking behind if I have reason to believe villain will check/raise this light.

I think his flop check/raising range as he is a regular at 100NL -who is most likely playing more than 4 tables- is KJ, KxQh, AhQx, (AxQh), (QT), 22, (Ahxh), 8h7h-Th9h, JxQh, AhTx and a very small % of random bluffs.

so your equity is around 32% on the flop:
Board: Kh Jh 2h

Wins Ties Equity
30.89% 0.77% 31.66% ( Kd9s )
67.56% 0.77% 68.34% ( 22,Ah5h,Ah4h,Ah3h,Ah2h,KJs,Th9h,9h8h,8h7h,AcQh,AdQ h,AhQc,AhQd,AhQs,AsQh,AcJh,AdJh,AhJc,AhJd,AhJs,AsJ h,AcTh,AdTh,AhTc,AhTd,AhTs,AsTh,KcQh,KdQh,KhQs,KJo ,QhJc,QhJd,QsJh,QcTh,QdTc,QdTh,QhTc,QhTd,QhTs,QsTc ,QsTh )

On the turn though, his betsize is a huge tell. he pretty much tells you he is scared of playing the river or thinks river will be though to play; and/or he doesnt know what to do if he bets and gets shoved on so he just shoves himself.

That means we can take out all nutflushes from his range and a lot of other flopped flushes too.

Im bored so made an estimation with pokerstove+Holdem ranger
Board: Kh Jh 2h Ad

Wins Ties Equity
3.73% 1.56% 5.30% ( Kd9s )
93.14% 1.56% 94.70% ( 22(67),KJs(80),8h7h(20),Th9h(20),8h9h(20),AcQh(20) ,AdQh(20),AhQc(40),AhQd(40),AhQs(40),AsQh(20),AhJc (20),AhJd(20),AhJs(20),AcTh(5),AdTh(5),AhTc(20),Ah Td(20),AhTs(20),AsTh(5),KcQh(50),KdQh(50),KJo(90), QhJc(20),QhJd(20),QcTd(20),QcTs(20),QdTc(20),QdTs( 20),QhTd(70),QsTc(20),QsTd(20) )

I think on the turn you have at best 9% equity vs his range.
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