Calling is pretty gross, but you'd put villain on 3 combos (KK). Getting about 6:1 to one, we'll say you need like 15% equity to call. That means if he does this move with even one combo of anything else out of spew, exasperation, or w.e, then your call is +EV. I can't fold for those odds against a human being susceptible to emotions every once in a blue moon. Assuming a range of QQ/JJ/KK, he'd need to shove KK/QQ 10% of the time to make it +EV. You'll be pleasantly surprised every now and then as well when some retard spazzes and gets to the river with AK here. Don't forget weak players will often desperado bluff-shove QQ on this board when you've represented your hand because, lo and behold! A FOUR STRAIGHT! BLUFF TIME! and by the river all hope of their hand being good is gone so they just shove in the bleak hope you fold.
I would (gue)estimate the chance of seeing AK here or TT is around 2% for each hand and the chance of QQ/JJ shoving somewhere between 5% and 15% depending on how spewy villain is.
|