50NL - QQ facing donk bet on turn (scare card)

[loicve]

Villain is a VPIP 24 PFR 18 Agg% 39 (222 hands).
What do you do on that turn and on the river + why ?

Thanks !!

[given1982]

I'm not folding here. Villain's line doesn't make sense if he thinks you're aggressive, because he should be expecting you to barrel the K, so he would c/r with his big hands.

[SebastianKnight]

Tough spot, I think. As given1982 says, villain's line is very odd. It screams strength, but why didn't he go for the check raise if he's so strong?
Possible reasons:
1) He's afraid you'll check behind - depends on his perception of your image.
2) He's worried you picked up a diamond draw.
If he's not so strong, what's his hand?
1) Air - if so, this is one heck of a bluff. Have you seen any indication that he's capable of it?
2) A big draw - 7d8d, 9d8d, Td9d, maybe Ad9d
3) A smaller draw
4) JJ or TT
I think a semibluff with a big draw makes some sense here, but it's only 4 combinations. He could also be taking a final shot with JJ or TT.

The trouble with calling is it pretty much turns your hand face up and you need to decide now under what circumstances, if any, you're going to call a river bet.

There's something to be said for raising here. A raise to $18 or $20 may be the cheapest way to get to a showdown. It will also force him to fold some draws (or force him to make a bad call). If you get reraised or called you're done putting money into the pot. The downside is you're getting almost half your stack in with a hand that can't stand any more action.

I wouldn't fault a fold.