NL50 - should we call?

[aLoner]

OnGame Skin, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): $112.74
BTN: $59.58
SB: $47.23
BB: $41.80
UTG: $2.30

BB posts $0.25
Pre-Flop: dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $2, 2 folds, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.25) (2 Players)
BB bets $3.25, Hero raises to $11.25, BB calls $8

Turn: ($26.75) (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($26.75) (2 Players)
BB bets $28.55 and is All-In, Hero ???

[ThatDeviant]

I think he has a busted flush a lot of the time. I'd call. I'd also fire the turn.

[aLoner]

Originally Posted by ThatDeviant

I think he has a busted flush a lot of the time. I'd call. I'd also fire the turn.

Do you consider not firing the turn - a mistake? If not, would how many times you'd check in such spot?

[ThatDeviant]

I'd say it was a mistake. Not a huge one but I think so.

His BB calling range contains a LOT of suited connectors. Looking at his line I'm almost positive that he has a draw and his bet/call suggests he's willing to get his stack in with it. On the turn you pick up top pair and the nut flush draw, so I'd imagine you don't mind getting it in here if he raises. If you check and a non diamond peels thats like an 8,9, 10 or a J (cards likely to smack his PF range and his bet calling range), you've made the mistake of giving him a free card to hit his possible straight. If you fire a bet you let him make a mistake by either peeling with bad odds or shoving with second best draws.

As played it seems to me your check induced a bluff out of him. He saw you check when the ace came down so he figures he can get you to fold your J10 or whatever. I think there are times when checking behind can work against select opponents but in this situation I'm never, ever checking this spot.

Betting to protect/get value when ahead with the redraw to the nuts if you're behind >>>> checking to allow dangerous cards to fall and cost you the pot.

[aLoner]

*Convinced*

Thanks.

[JibNinjas]

a very similiar hand came up in one of the other threads where the A fell on the turn and everyone was saying that he should check. i was an advocate for betting there, but i do not believe that anyone agree with me as they said it folds out anything worse and the Ace is such a scare card that you should check it to enduce a bluff.

i think it really can go either way and should be very read dependant. here we have tp 2nd kicker and nut flush draw. there is not much that we are worried about, if he has a oesd then he only has four outs to beat. and checking the turn looks like we are giving up on the hand and gives him a good opportunity to fire the turn hoping that we missed our flush.

i do not think that i am ever folding the river here. you will see a lot of busted draws and every once in a while a wierd Ace hand. if he had a set or two pair he is probably getting it in on the flop so we really can rule those out.

as far as the turn play i think that a good arguement can be made for both. if he is nitty we should bet because he most certainly will not bluff, but if you have seen him make big bluffs before i think that checking is good because you are not vulerable and you give him good reason to stab at it.

[ThatDeviant]

This is a little different than that because of the redraw to the nut diamond flush and his bet calling range extends to 9's and 10's which are further outs we let in for free by checking. Also if he's NOT on a diamond draw (likely given we hold two, two on the board) and he suspects you are (reasonable), then he's probably not going to put any more money into the pot on the river if the flush hits. This also holds true as the turn brings a SECOND flush draw so he has to be wary of that. Checking lets him catch up only to hands which beat you most of the time and being as though this guy seems pretty agressive I think a bet looks bluffier than a check.

[zayphod]

I dont think a call on the river is a bad thing. I think deviant is right and that it looks like a busted draw and an induced bluff. Occasionally he may even show up with a badly played AK.

The lack of a turn bet is a mistake because of reasons outlined already, and if you had bet the turn and he pushed you would be getting the odds to call for your pair+flush draw anyway I think.

[ThatDeviant]

Agreed.

[no eff eks]

Bet the turn always. Checking was not a small mistake, it was a big mistake. River looks a lot like a fold to me, the only thing you beat is a bluff and this looks more like a big hand that missed a turn check-raise than a bluff.