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I think we have to fire the turn and see how he reacts. Although this board is very scary for you, remember that it is very scary looking for him as well.
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Raise to at least .12 preflop. Leading out on the turn is tricky... I don't see that I could bet/fold an overpair on the turn even on this board. I would have called his turn bet, then decided what to do on the river... I'd probably fold to a river shove though.
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Hi. I think it is obvious fold. The reason villain leads out is to get you reraising him, thus getting max value. The other reason he bets is that the board is too scary for you and you'll check behind, and probably fold the river. And as we know it is really hard to fold AA.
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I think it is ok to fold on the turn, a loose player on that board would have hit in some way. He could easily have the queen, two clubs, top pair, two pair. I think the opponent calling the almost pot-bet when you are short-stacked is saying he either has a big hand on the flop, or he is calling to draw on the turn. The turn card is a killer, I think the only hand in his range here that you are able to beat is KJ, I would have done the same play you did. If a loose player was willing to just call with that kind of board, thats when I would hear alarm bells. |