Weird spot with QQ

[FishAndChips]

This is actually a hand from a $2/$5 live game I played but I'll convert it for you guys.

The texture of the table is extremely loose aggressive, almost all pots are getting raised pre with high implied odds and average pot size is $200-$800.

Villain just got felted two orbits prior firing three barrels on the button into a QJ2Q7 board with AJ (lost to BB who check called all 3 streets w/ Q5)

MGM Grand $2/$5 NLHE:

Seat 1: Fish1 ($3200)
Seat 2: Fish2 ($200)
Seat 3: Fish3 ($400)
Seat 4: Fish4 ($1100)
Seat 5: Fish5 ($150)
Seat 6: Fish6 ($1200)
Seat 7: Hero ($550)
Seat 8: Fish7 ($700)
Seat 9: Fish8 ($300)
Seat 10: Villain ($500)
Fish1 posts the small blind of $2
Fish2 posts the big blind of $5
The button is in seat #10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Qs Qc]

Fish4 calls $5
Fish6 calls $5
Hero raises to $30
Villain calls $30
Fish4 folds
Fish6 calls $30
*** FLOP *** [8c 10c Jd] ($102)
Fish6 checks
Hero bets $80
Villain raises to $200
Fish6 folds
Hero ?

So here's the situation, the board is extremely drawy and Villain is doing this with both combo draws, club draws, made straights, two pairs, and sets, in that order of likelihood. The pot is already $382 and I have $400 behind. My image is extremely TAGgy with a line of probably 12/8/3. Villain is probably about 35/12/5. What would you do in this spot?

I'll post hand results after a few responses.

[ThatDeviant]

I shove.

[FishAndChips]

Why do you shove?

[ThatDeviant]

To get max value from draws and other hands this donk is stacking off with. It's only a little over a pot bet which works out nicely as he seems like a maniac.

[Padawan]

One thing for sure you cant just call.... its either shove or fold...
I really dont put him on a set due to the limp call... unless its 8's but doubtful... I would say a draw is more likely... I think I have to shove in this situation.. you have the Q blocked for the straight draw.. Shoving you might even have some fold equity.. Can't wait to here what happened

[08019]

35/12/5 is hardly a maniac. Pretty tight live.


Id probably shove as well even if we probably never that far ahead and we could be in pretty bad shape, but the QQ here are kind of good because we block some of villans possible outs if he has J9/T9

[FishAndChips]

Well, I'm with you guys, I pushed, but unfortunately after discussing it with some local pros, I think we're wrong.

Villain's range here was combo draws, flush draws, made straights, two pairs, and sets. His bet on the flop is committing him to the pot with any of these holdings -- Villain only has a couple hundred behind and he's getting the right price to call with any of these holdings. Therefore, in this very odd situation, we actually have no fold equity except against a stone cold bluff or possibly aj.

What makes the situation even weirder is that we're not really bad off against any hand. Even if Villain's got a straight we have a gutshot and backdoor flush draw against him. Supposing he has a 79 for a made straight, we're still 21% to win.

So basically, the situation is that with his raise, Villain has already committed himself. By calling, we are committing ourselves. Folding is okay here, as we're not really ahead of anything in Villain's range, but we're coinflipping a lot of the time and there's $300 in dead money in the pot. That alone makes me think we're strong enough to commit our stack.

I think the correct play here is actually to call, with the intention calling off the rest of our stack on the turn. The reason is that both of us are committed, so pushing does nothing (no fold equity), but calling allows the few hands we have crushed (air + aj) to put in the rest of their stack.

So in this case, folding is okay, calling is good, and pushing is by far the worst play, but it was the play I chose at the time. In retrospect if I'm put in a situation like this again where it feels like a very likely combo draw, I think I'll elect to call, or possibly fold.

Villain ended up having [7d 9d] for the dummy end of a straight, a 9 peeled off on the turn to complete my gutshot, and I took down the pot on a pretty sick beat.

[TheDeKay]

Nah, I just shove. 2 arguments against calling here:
1. You are out of position. So what do you do on the turn? You check to let him take a free card? Cause why would he shove a draw now, when you are already commited? You donk-shove any card?
2. You commit yourself to call everything, but if e.g. a 9 hits and he had 97... you won't get any money from that hand anymore + Some sets might be scared, too! So you get your money in bad more often, cause he could decide if his hand is still good on the turn.
+ There is so much money already in the pot, that I don't mind coinflipping against his range.

But I have to admit, that I have no experience playing in a casino ^^ So maybe there is another dynamic than online.

[ThatDeviant]

Calling is a disguting play because there are so many bad turn cards for you that either kill your action or give him a better hand. It's a clear shove or a clear fold, read dependant. Plus you're OOP. Given the strength of your hand, your position and his tendancies I shove this all day.

[FishAndChips]

I get what you guys are saying, but what card could come on the turn that would stop us from both going all in. There is no card that could peel that would prevent us from putting the rest in the turn because we've already committed so much of our stacks. If a 9 comes and the board is 8 9 10 j, he is not folding the dummy end of the straight for $300 more when there's already $500 in the pot. If a club peels and there's 3 clubs on board, he will be MORE inclined to push regardless of what he has to protect his hand or because he's just made a flush.

Likewise I'm not folding to any card on the turn. A blank doesn't scare me, a club helps me (bd flush), pairing the board helps me against a random 2 pair etc.

The argument that the locals were making is that at least by calling, you're getting AJ to stay along for the ride or air to overcommit, so you're allowing more hands you have beat to continue playing out the hand. The money is already all in on the flop once you call, there's no need to shove because you're getting 0 fold equity except against hands you already have beat that you don't want to fold.