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Old 01-21-2009, 05:03 PM
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Default 50nl - overpair in 3bet pot raised on flop

I didn't actually play this hand, but I'm curious what others think about it. I don't have a HH so I'll make one up.

9-max NLHE $0.50bb (Pokerstars)

Villain: 100bb (CO)
Hero (AcAd): 100bb (bb)

Folds to villain in CO, Villain opens for 3bb, folds to us in bb, we 3bet to 10bb, villain calls.

FLOP: Qd Jh 3s

Hero bets 20bb, villain raises to 60bb, hero ???
------

Villain is a multitabling reg (SNE actually) that usually plays at 100nl or 200nl, assumed to be a very solid player (no other reads). What is your reaction to his flop raise, and what range do you put him on here?

I know what I would do, but like I said, I'm curious what others think.
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Old 01-21-2009, 05:05 PM
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Shove.
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Old 01-21-2009, 06:11 PM
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I'd 3bet to 11 or 12bb preflop. The pot-sized cbet is so out of the ordinary that I think it taints the rest of the hand. I don't have any experience with how people react to pot-sized cbets in 3bet pots because I've never made them or seen anyone else make them. The fact that villain left himself 30bb behind is really strange also. If I had to guess at a range, I'd think that this is pretty close and means that hero should shove:

Board: Qd Jh 3s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.578% 50.31% 00.26% 8966 47.00 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 49.422% 49.16% 00.26% 8760 47.00 { QQ-JJ, AQs, QJs, T9s, AQo }
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Old 01-21-2009, 06:16 PM
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Yeah, I definitely don't like the line that hero took in this hand, but I didn't play this I'm just looking for input. Potting this flop was absolutely horrible imo, but I'm not concerned about that really. The 3bet PF I'm not sure what size he actually used, but I just assumed he'd make it something like 3x+1bb since he's a fairly standard nitty-tag (talking about hero).

I'd expect that KK/KTs also fit in villain's range, no? I'd also think there's some air in his range as well given that he's representing such a narrow value range by raising like that.
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Old 01-22-2009, 08:31 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by no eff eks View Post
I'd expect that KK/KTs also fit in villain's range, no? I'd also think there's some air in his range as well given that he's representing such a narrow value range by raising like that.
KK and KTs make sense, but I'd discount them because I wouldn't expect him to call with them as often as with the hands I listed. I would think that air is a very small part of his range because he raised to a size that forces him to call off a shove with air.
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Old 01-22-2009, 11:53 AM
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unless we have a good read here, can we really fold?
i push
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Old 01-23-2009, 07:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dansiek View Post
unless we have a good read here, can we really fold?
i push
I don't know... I wouldn't think so, but I don't play 9-max so I wasn't sure if I should trust my own reaction.

The thing that messes with me here is that the villain is known to be a solid winner at higher stakes, and I really wouldn't expect them to play a huge hand this way without a very solid read (he has to put hero on exactly KK+ in order to make that huge raise good, and that's pretty tough to do).

To me this hand looks like a good player seeing a flop that a hand like AK can't continue on and he decided to make a play (not sure about his bet sizing, but w/e -- if he has total air he can actually fold since he'll be like <5% to win). Otherwise he's usually going to have AQ/KQs or a draw (usually not a draw imo).

Thanks for the responses, much appreciated.
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