Nitty fold to c/r on the river?

[Tsorp]

Sorry for no converter.. it keeps bugging for some reason.

I have no read on this guy. Never seen him before and haven't played a hand with him yet.
Am I right to think this c/r on the river is always at least AJ?? I really wanted to call but I've never seen anyone do this as a bluff at nl50..

Hand #1768012769000218: Pebble Beach 12769
Seat 1: poop*** (41,20 in chips)
Seat 2: Mad*** (66,55 in chips)
Seat 3: Palm*** (9,00 in chips)
Seat 4: Bara*** (19,46 in chips)
Seat 5: DMD7*** (12,95 in chips)
Seat 6: CakePokerBug (52,95 in chips)
Seat 7: Aras*** (54,15 in chips)
Seat 9: N.Y.*** (34,60 in chips)
Seat 10: imne*** (52,65 in chips)
N.Y.***: posts small blind $0,25
imne***: posts big blind $0,50
Dealt to CakePokerBug [ 9d Js ]
poop***: folds
Mad***: folds
Palm***: folds
Bara***: folds
DMD7***: folds
CakePokerBug: raises to $1,75
Aras***: folds
N.Y.***: folds
imne***: calls
@@@ F_L_O_P @@@ [ 4s Td Qd ]
imne***: checks
CakePokerBug: bets $2,50
imne***: calls
# # # TURN # # # [ Kd ]
imne***: checks
CakePokerBug: bets $5
imne***: calls
&&& RIVER &&& [ 5c ]
imne***: checks
CakePokerBug: bets $11
imne***: is all in 43.4000
CakePokerBug: folds
imne***: returns uncalled bet $32,40

[TheDeKay]

I really can not fold here. We are not that deep and he might value-town himself /w KQ or a set... we only have to be good ~30% of the time and there are not that many hands, that beat us. He is likely to fold AJ vs our Cbet or at least raise the turn with it, so we are only beaten by a flush.

[popooo]

mathematically we only need to be good 30% of the time, i found myself hard to lay this down.

but i think there is nothing wrong in laying this down as well, as i think not many players in 50nl capable of check-raise river as a bluff, and i doubt them doing that with set, two pairs in this board. the best seems that you are calling hoping for a split?

maybe you should pat yourself for saving some $$. i don't think i can lay this down though...much largely depend on the flow of the game, and how you feel about this opponent think of you.

[Tsorp]

Originally Posted by popooo

mathematically we only need to be good 30% of the time, i found myself hard to lay this down.

but i think there is nothing wrong in laying this down as well, as i think not many players in 50nl capable of check-raise river as a bluff, and i doubt them doing that with set, two pairs in this board. the best seems that you are calling hoping for a split?

maybe you should pat yourself for saving some $$. i don't think i can lay this down though...much largely depend on the flow of the game, and how you feel about this opponent think of you.

Thanks for the HH!

I tanked it until timing out and couldnt see anything other than the flush or AJ... he showed QJ of hearts.

[postoakpoker]

its fun to watch that hand replayed twice at the same time. I also call river unless he's shown a propensity to be an overly "trappy" player.

[Trikkur]

J9o in the CO seems like a really light raise. You can't be turning that big of a profit on it.

I call river here most of the time.

[popooo]

Originally Posted by postoakpoker

its fun to watch that hand replayed twice at the same time. I also call river unless he's shown a propensity to be an overly "trappy" player.

i wonder why there are two replayers in my thread...i only put one

[popooo]

Originally Posted by Tsorp

Thanks for the HH!

I tanked it until timing out and couldnt see anything other than the flush or AJ... he showed QJ of hearts.

take note take note on this particular player
turning his pair into bluff on 3flush, 3str board

[Tsorp]

Originally Posted by Trikkur

J9o in the CO seems like a really light raise. You can't be turning that big of a profit on it.

I call river here most of the time.

Yeah I know I usually don't open it but the guy on the BTN is really tight