[50nl] plan on flop w/ JJ on Qxx against 2.5psb stack opponent (3 bet pot)

[popooo]

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
8 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($64.20)
UTG 1 ($21.95)
MP1 ($29.55)
MP2 ($27.70)
CO ($36.15)
Hero (BTN) ($51.40)
SB ($29.50)
BB ($18.00)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 8 players) Hero is BTN

1 fold, UTG 1 raises to $1 ($20.95), 3 folds, Hero raises to $3.25 ($48.15), 2 folds, UTG 1 calls $2.25 ($18.70)

Flop: ($7.25, 2 players)


UTG 1 checks ($18.70), Hero ? ($48.15)


If I put the UTG+1 on the following range
QQ-99,AKs-AJs,AKo-AQo,KQs

what will be your plan? UTG+1 has about 2.5 pot size bet left.
assume UTG+1 will shove QQ, AQ if we bet. UTG+1 should call with all underpair, probably AKs depend on our bet size.

While UTG+1 is not so solid, so i think my range is not accurate, but overall how u guys feel about the ranges if consider UTG+1 is a half-decent less than 50bb stack player.

Thanks

[postoakpoker]

the fact that he minraised pretty much indicates that he's not a good player. your range is wayyyy off for him. his range includes a lot of lower pocket pairs and possibly some suited connectors and random hands. it's hard to say what I would put villain's range at if he was competant, but if he was competant he wouldn't be a shortstack and he wouldn't be minraising in EP. If he was fullstacked and he made a normal raise and flatted your 3b, I'd probably put him on 88 or 99-JJ and AQ+.

cbet this here all day long. make it ~$5.

[Trikkur]

I bet $5.50. I like my hand, but I'm also not going to get married to it. I might call one raise on the flop, but if he check/raises turn or river I'm dumping hand. If he check/calls flop, I'm betting turn for value. If he check/calls turn, I'm probably checking back river, though depending on board texture I might even value bet again.

[no eff eks]

bleh, thought this was $25nl so what I said made no sense.... Since it's 50nl, um, basically what Trikkur said.

[Colossos159]

I kinda disagree with Trikkur when he states:

"I'd bet 5,50$ on the flop and might call 1 raise on the flop."

If you call that raise , you have to get it in no matter what card comes on turn because villain will almost have no money behind.

On the other hand, I dont really see a way to play this hand without getting the money in seeing villain only has 2,5 x pot left.

I'd check behind on flop and see if he bets turn big/small or checks.

[Trikkur]

Yea I didn't pay enough attention to stack sizes. Obviously there is no way that I can bet/bet/bet like I mentioned in my post with Villain only have 1/2 stack. Just bet and get it in on the flop. Or bet flop, and figure out what to do on turn card. I'd be willing to get it in a lot.

[dansiek]

if we show any kind of aggression we are basically forcing ourselves to call, i dont think a check behind is completely horrible here as it may induce a lot of bluffs, however if a K or A comes our hand loses a lot of value.

[Trikkur]

Originally Posted by dansiek

if we show any kind of aggression we are basically forcing ourselves to call, i dont think a check behind is completely horrible here as it may induce a lot of bluffs, however if a K or A comes our hand loses a lot of value.

This is also a legitimate play. Check back flop and call turn if he bets. Also if he check turns and it was a blank, you can bet for value, then figure out if you want to shove river for value as well.

[popooo]

Originally Posted by postoakpoker

the fact that he minraised pretty much indicates that he's not a good player. your range is wayyyy off for him. his range includes a lot of lower pocket pairs and possibly some suited connectors and random hands.

aggree

Flop: ($7.25, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks ($18.70), Hero bets $4.75 ($43.40), UTG 1 calls $4.75 ($13.95)

Turn: ($16.75, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks ($13.95), Hero ($43.40)?

the reason that i bet smaller than normal, is i think this opp will probably fold most of the time if he has nothing, at that time i didn't think this opp will have any str8 draw, which was my mistakes (76s is probably within UTG+1 range). when UTG+1 called on the flop, his range becomes narrow down to underpair TT-66 and Q pair..that is how i put, what are u guys think?

if that is the range i put UTG+1 on, then i should not bet on the turn (bet=AI, since we have 1 effective pot size bet left). since worse hands likes TT-66 will still call our bet on river, we didn't lose much value by checking here, and bet the river. TT-66 also don't have many outs to draw to.

take a step backward, if i think UTG+1 calling range on flop is wider, then i should not bet smaller on flop, i should bet bigger on flop, 5 or 5.5, and bet all-in on the turn? bet bigger on flop only drawback is that we might have to call the all-in raise by UTG+1 on flop, if he/she do so.

thanks for everyone's reply. more please

[popooo]

Originally Posted by dansiek

if we show any kind of aggression we are basically forcing ourselves to call, i dont think a check behind is completely horrible here as it may induce a lot of bluffs, however if a k or a comes our hand loses a lot of value.

Originally Posted by trikkur

this is also a legitimate play. Check back flop and call turn if he bets. Also if he check turns and it was a blank, you can bet for value, then figure out if you want to shove river for value as well.

+1