Is this shove a leak?

[quadfive]

Villain is unknown

[AlaskaForever]

This is fold. No way we are ahead here and only two outs at the best.

[ShoveOrFold]

^ Not true. Two outs at best? Really? We have 2 outs at worst here.

I haven't played much FR for a while, but from what i remember at these limits, the people are usually uber nits. Depending on player reads I would shove/fold. In this spot, I think its going to be really close. Given that you are so deep, and villain would raise 2 players after you showing so much strength i would probably fold. Calling here isn't terrible, but you are going to have to know hes going to have you beat a lot of the time. When we shove in this hand, at best we are hoping he has some sort of combo draw or pair+ draw. He may have TT, but i think JJ-KK would reraise preflop.

[quadfive]

so we chalk it up as a leak

[dansiek]

i guess so, because the pot is so multi-way this board must have hit someone better than TP.
Im afraid we are beat.

[CliffLee]

I thought that the flop bet was alittle small and I would have bet the pot to discourage any draws. I do think you're beat quite alot here but there is a chance he has something like pocket T or J and because of all the action before him, he decided just to smooth call and set mine but now that he saw the flop, he thought he may have the best hand. Especially since your flop bet was weak.

[TheDeKay]

Bet size is fine - just fold now.

[Logieuk]

Originally Posted by TheDeKay

Bet size is fine - just fold now.

Could you explain the reason why he should fold? I've done a similar thing myself, and its a problem i have myself!

[TheDeKay]

Originally Posted by Logieuk

Could you explain the reason why he should fold? I've done a similar thing myself, and its a problem i have myself!

Well, it's a 6way pot and we are ~150BB deep and the villain-2 is showing a lot of strengh by squeezing here. Imo he is more likely to have at least a pair+draw and not a naked flushdraw + the other villain-1 didn't call with nothing....

So let's pokerstove the outcome, that villain-1 is folding and villain-2 calls with a range of combo-draws, 2pair+ and sets.

Board: 3d 9d 5s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.077% 31.08% 00.00% 5538 0.00 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 68.923% 68.92% 00.00% 12282 0.00 { 99, 55, 33, 8d7d, 8d6d, 7d6d, 7d5d, 6d5d, 6d4d, 5d4d, 53s }

So as you can see: We are behind his range and since it's maybe still a too wide range (most nits only raise sets here) it's a clear fold.

[mxrider]

Originally Posted by ShoveOrFold

^ Not true. Two outs at best? Really? We have 2 outs at worst here.

I really think he said this right. This is a set 99% of the time in this pot and we only have 2outs to improve to a better set.