Can you fold?

[quadfive]

Against an unknown here...

I know I can just chalk it up as a cooler, but does anybody find a fold here??

Getting sick of just saying "cooler" There's gotta be something I'm missing.....


Poker Hand History Posting & Sharing Database

[ThatDeviant]

I'm never folding against an unknown.

[given1982]

I don't like shoving the river, but it's pretty hard to fold this hand against an unknown. Get some reads/stats.

[chinz]

I don't see much (any, tbh) value in shoving the river... If we assume he's a decent player, most likely K in his calling range OOP is KQ to an MP raise... 22 is also possible (or even 99).

If he think he's got a little bit of donkey in himself, we can include AK, KJ, KT and K9 too... Even in that range (AK-K9, 22, 99) there isn't really any (ok... KT) hands that you can get extra value.

So, my question is, what do you put him on when you raise on the river? This is an easy call, because there IS a lot of air in his range [because of card removal, only 1 more K remaining on the deck] but there isn't really any worse hands (except KT) that you can expect to get any extra value from...

And you just can't put all of them in his range and think they're equally likely, you gotta weight his range towards KQ, 33 and 99 IMO, since most people won't call with KT or when out of position, at least to an MP raise. Also most people raise with AK (yeah I know, not this time) but you'll see it often enough too. So if he is valuebetting, i'd say your hand is worse 70% of the time and splitting 20% the time... or something like that.

Actually when villain takes that line, you should be more worried than thinking "OMG OMG OMG I HAVE TRIPS SHIP IT IN". You could have saved 13.5bb, it isn't much, but makes a big difference in the long run. If you have a situation like that once in 500 hands, it makes 1.35ptbb/100 better winrate in the long run... which is a lot.

If you want to, in FR this is actually a good place for a "hero fold" imo. I don't think calling and folding really are much different EV wise, folding might actually be a little better but it's good for mental health to look up what he had, instead of thinking "did I fold the best hand?" for next 10 minutes.

EDIT:
I don't know how good you are doing, but if you have problem beating these stakes I'd suggest folding KJo preflop from MP, just to avoid spots like this. You are almost always out-kickered when you get any action with top pair, which is the hand you are mostly looking to hit.

[lowkey]

I'm too much of a donkey to fold, but I'd say shoving here is -EV

I'd expect to see a full house probably 9's over Kings or AK more often than not

[MOJO_ERASER]

u cant fold this ever sorry dont beat yourself up other than smooth calling might be better

[urbansprawler]

How did you not shove the turn lol? I like your line, I'm getting this in like every single time.

[Silverthunder]

If the guy is not a donkey (ie, was this guy playing half of his preflop hands where K5 would be in his range), it's probably a fold. Full ring should be pretty nitty so that is even more the reason to fold. There is no air in his range (no missed draws on that board). Definitely no pocket pairs in his range with the raise on the turn. Min raise on the turn = the nuts.

That is good that we have some action in this full ring forum. Keep the posts coming

[chinz]

Originally Posted by MOJO_ERASER

u cant fold this ever sorry dont beat yourself up other than smooth calling might be better

I'm 100% confident that calling is better on the river...

Why would you want to raise, when we only have a bluffcatcher that we're calling with only because card removal makes it so hard for him to have a hand? He's almost never playing any worse hand like this for value -> shoving has zero value.

And this is certainly foldable. As I said in my earlier posts, I probably wouldn't fold this because I'm a fish and a calling station, but it doesn't really make too much sense for him to bluff here and we shouldn't assume he's playing any weaker hands for value like this.

That card removal thing is kind of tricky on the other hand... when we call that turn raise, he should be very likely to give up with most of his bluffs... But if we don't know anything about him, we can't be sure whether he understands that our hands is face up trips...


I asked about this from a friend of mine who used to play NL100 FR until like late 2008 (switched to 6max), and he said he would fold either on the turn (wtf?) or the river. But on the other hand, it's been a year since he played FR, I don't know how the games have changed since that. (And obviously he could be wrong too).

There was one somewhat similar spot to this in Ansky's first (FR tournament) DC video, where board came something like AQJ and he called a cbet with A7s or something similar. Turn was A and went check-check, then villain bet like 2/3 pot in the blank river and Ansky folded. I was seriously shocked there, but it's not that bad fold really when you think about that. (that was somewhat late on the tournament, and that river bet was huge portion of their stacks)

Of course when you think like that, you'll start leveling yourself to fold too much... But on the other hand, probably at least 80% of us are calling way too much, so we should be more worried about making bad calls than bad folds in marginal spots.

[Silverthunder]

Chinz, I would suspect that games have become nittier since your friend stopped playing full ring. Of course, I don't know for sure- I have not played that long. There could even be some seasonality with the fish (ie. play more in the winter when people are at home more)- Just a theory.