100nL Button play

[quadfive]

I'm new to this limit, so I really have no notes/stats on villain. I just figured to be ahead of his CO steal range so I 3bet him & flop top pair.

Let me know how you think I played the hand so far & how I should proceed from here.

he check called the flop.. my replayer is showing odd numbers... I Cbet 19

[given1982]

The fact that your hand is ahead of someone's opening range is not a good reason to 3bet. If you're 3betting for value, you need your hand to be ahead of villain's 3bet calling range. It will take an exceptional villain for this to be true with QJo. As played the cbet is fine. If you have a question about the turn, why not show us the turn card and villain's action?

[quadfive]

& now?

[given1982]

Just shove. The fact that it feels really thin and you have to ask about it shows how bad preflop was. You will be value-owning yourself a fair amount by shoving this turn, but he could be on a draw or an underpair, and there are a lot of ugly rivers.

[quadfive]

yeah, my poor play preflop here came back to haunt me... We got it in. I lost. it was a marginal play @ best. Live & learn

[postoakpoker]

at best. fold pf unless you have adequate reason to 3bet here (fairly loose opener who folds to 3bets and [extremely] tight blinds)

[chinz]

Given:
Why do you suggest to cbet the flop? There is not really too many bad cards (I'm not too afraid of draws in 3bet pots) so checking back the flop (or the turn if you decide to cbet) is the only way to go here IMO.



If you decide to cbet, then...

When you think about his range, the only real bad cards for you would be J,T and 9 because those are the only likely hands (JJ, TT and 99) that are calling on the flop (because any FD is shipping it in) that you had beat. Since you have J, if a J comes the card removal makes it almost impossible for him to have JJ (and you suck out on KQ/AQ/AA), so that isn't a bad card either. That really only leaves 99 and TT as cards that could be bad for you.

K and A are not really bad cards and neither is a third spade. He should never have a FD here (after the cbet) and if either K or A comes and he bets, you were probably beat already on the flop.

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With that reasoning, I think his most likely hands here are AQ (by far), TT or 99, of course he could also have an overpair here, if quadfive has been 3betting a lot. Anyway there is nothing in his range that we beat and would call a shove and if we have him beat he is most likely drawing to 2 outs. So I really don't see any value in shoving the turn. I'd rather check back and fold to a river shove, just because NO ONE would ever shove TT for value (after you check the turn behind) in FR at the river.

If someone floats in 3bet pot and shoves the river as a bluff, nh gg wp, he got us this time, but on FR NL100 I really don't believe anyone would do that.

[given1982]

Originally Posted by chinz

Given:
Why do you suggest to cbet the flop? There is not really too many bad cards (I'm not too afraid of draws in 3bet pots) so checking back the flop (or the turn if you decide to cbet) is the only way to go here IMO.



If you decide to cbet, then...

When you think about his range, the only real bad cards for you would be J,T and 9 because those are the only likely hands (JJ, TT and 99) that are calling on the flop (because any FD is shipping it in) that you had beat. Since you have J, if a J comes the card removal makes it almost impossible for him to have JJ (and you suck out on KQ/AQ/AA), so that isn't a bad card either. That really only leaves 99 and TT as cards that could be bad for you.

K and A are not really bad cards and neither is a third spade. He should never have a FD here (after the cbet) and if either K or A comes and he bets, you were probably beat already on the flop.

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With that reasoning, I think his most likely hands here are AQ (by far), TT or 99, of course he could also have an overpair here, if quadfive has been 3betting a lot. Anyway there is nothing in his range that we beat and would call a shove and if we have him beat he is most likely drawing to 2 outs. So I really don't see any value in shoving the turn. I'd rather check back and fold to a river shove, just because NO ONE would ever shove TT for value (after you check the turn behind) in FR at the river.

If someone floats in 3bet pot and shoves the river as a bluff, nh gg wp, he got us this time, but on FR NL100 I really don't believe anyone would do that.

I didn't "suggest" cbetting. I just said it was fine. I think checking back is fine too. After reading your analysis, I think you've even convinced me that checking back is better. My main point about the hand is that the 3bet is spew.

[chinz]

Originally Posted by given1982

I didn't "suggest" cbetting. I just said it was fine. I think checking back is fine too. After reading your analysis, I think you've even convinced me that checking back is better. My main point about the hand is that the 3bet is spew.

OK. Lately I've been trying to give a lot of thought to "what cards really are scare cards for us", especially when playing HU (I know I miss a ton of value checking turn/river back when overcard comes or FD hits) so I was just wondering why you said that there is a lot of scare cards.

To some extent it might be true that if we decide not to cbet, FDs might be a small part of his range (because he would check-shove them). When he just calls our cbet, we can pretty much assume he doesn't have FD.

Anyway I would check back this flop and call max 1 street (or bet the river if he keeps on checking). If you are cbetting 80+% of flops as a 3bettor, this might be a little exploitable, but I wouldn't worry about it too much. If someone is good enough to think "he probably has showdown value when he checks it back", he still wouldn't probably try bluffing you off, because it would most likely mean betting the turn and shoving the river (not knowing if you'd fold).

[nuvan]

Don't worry about balancing your flop c-betting range unless you have a shitload of history 1K+ hands with villain, but have to agree 100% with chinz if your 3 betting on button 3 bet with obviously a wide range of hands but polarize your range to hands such as K2,27,2's 3's or even hands like 78s(which add a lot of deception to your hands, but its a style thing) and the other side where your generally way ahead of there range AK,Q's+ AQ , JJ(these 2 hands can be flatted or 3 bet depends your style and the opponent).
I personally prefer 3 betting hands with blockers like K2, A4 which have really no post flop value and reduce possible hands they have rather then with pure trash with 0 postflop value, if i hit a top pair hand with these sorts of hands i check back rather then attempting to get value as your in a way ahead way behind situation so no real need to bet if called your put in a shitty position whereas if you have trash in your hands i'll be c-betting 100% of time and then reevaluate turn depending on villain and turn card to see if i can double barrel or not (standard play is c/f from there on in though).
So check back if good turn value bet, if donked into generally call 1 fold river unimproved.