River set & shove...

[quadfive]

Not many hands on villain, ~70.. he seems tag. 24/17/3

Do we just muck?

[given1982]

Bet flop; bet turn; as played, call the river I guess.

[Tehsauce]

I get the feeling you are facing a made straight here, I feel like villain would bet with a K or Q on the turn so I just can't put him on 2 pair or an A. What is your line on him to this point?

Are you good here often enough to call? Probably, but without a read on villain I am probably folding. A decently sized cbet would have given you a much better idea of where you stood imo.

[Padstow]

I would def cbet flop here, why did u play it so passively?

[urbansprawler]

Because it's a terrible board to cbet?

[Padstow]

board is pretty wet tho, so why not cbet, and double barrel a blank turn?

[urbansprawler]

You do realize what you said makes no sense?

What kind of cards do you plan to barrel?

What do you hope to fold?

I like quadfive's play here a lot and flop cbet is debatable, but to say it is an auto-cbet is pretty wrong as it usually smacks villain's range harder than chris brown's right hand hit rihanna.

As for river, as sick as it seems, I think this is a fold. His shove doesn't look many hands you beat.

[tmiby]

I call because of these reasons:

QQ+ is unlikely, he would 3bet pre.

Straight is for sure possible, but I would expect him to bet turn. because he wants to play a big pot with nuts. He also has a good reason to think, that you're holding an ace. so it's a great card for him, to get value.

Last but not least, I see a 2 pair here often. AQ. A5 and A7 are more unlikely.

55 is in his range too.

Missed draw could make another 5-10%.

Given the money that is already in the pot. I call.

[urbansprawler]

Did some stoves, use opponent's other stats to see if call is +EV or not.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.000% 36.00% 00.00% 27 0.00 { 77 }
Hand 1: 64.000% 64.00% 00.00% 48 0.00 { AQs, JTs, AQo, JTo }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.857% 42.86% 00.00% 36 0.00 { 77 }
Hand 1: 57.143% 57.14% 00.00% 48 0.00 { 55, AQs, JTs, AQo, JTo }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.857% 42.86% 00.00% 9 0.00 { 77 }
Hand 1: 57.143% 57.14% 00.00% 12 0.00 { 55, JTs }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 15.789% 15.79% 00.00% 9 0.00 { 77 }
Hand 1: 84.211% 84.21% 00.00% 48 0.00 { 55, JTs, JTo }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.652% 45.65% 00.00% 63 0.00 { 77 }
Hand 1: 54.348% 54.35% 00.00% 75 0.00 { QQ+, 55, AQs+, JTs, AQo+, JTo }



As you see, it comes down to:

a) can he shove anything other than JT.
b) does he fold JTo preflop.
c) does he never slowplay AA/KK/QQ this way.
d) Can he play AK/AQ this way.

[podbelski]

cbet is debatable right. The biggest problem with it is you only get value from draws but they will likely check-raise you.

I'd made a delayed cbet here.