EV help?

[LedLoaf]

Hello, I been messing with this SNG Quiz program and I am confused how they are calculating the EV in the situations shown. Here is an example.

600/1200

Button: $4000
SB:$3400
BB (Hero): $1400 with 74s of clubs

- Button Folds
- Small Blind goes all in for $3400
- Hero has the option to fold or push
- I said FOLD answer is to push and the EV difference is 0.86

How do they get 0.86? I understand that you have to push because of the blind crippling you (which at the time I didn't see). I understand calculating EV when the flop shows but how do they find the EV preflop?

Any help?

[given1982]

Originally Posted by LedLoaf

how do they find the EV preflop?

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,712,304 games 0.001 secs 1,712,304,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 87.422% 87.24% 00.18% 1493820 3118.00 { AdAs }
Hand 1: 12.578% 12.40% 00.18% 212248 3118.00 { 7c2h }

Also, you could check on the website of the product you're asking about:

Sit And Go End Game Tools

[ShoveOrFold]

This quesiton has more to do with ICM compared to calculating the EV of a hand.

[LedLoaf]

I just need the formula to figure it out really. I am having trouble finding it. I guess it would help a lot if I should push or fold. Any help with the formula would be great. I don't need to know where to find the calculator I would like to know the theory behind how the calculator is finding preflop EV.

[LedLoaf]

I think I figured it out in case anyone is wondering. I am not sure if it is correct, but I think I am on the right track.

EV = [Our Equity] * [our win] - [Villain's equity] * [our loss]

Pot = 200BB + 100SB = $300
To call = $100
Pot Total = $300+$100 = $400

Equity Math = $300 in pot, $100 to call = 3/1
3+1/1 = 4/1
1 / 4 = 0.25
Equity = 0.25%

Villains Equity = 1.0 - 0.25 = 0.75%
Our Loss = 300-100=$200 to call

EV = 0.25 * 400 - 0.75 * 200
EV = 100 - 150
EV = -$50

I get -$50 but according to SNG Quiz EV DIFF = $55

Anyone know where I am going wrong? I am no math genius.


EDIT:
When I open SNGEGT and type in the the appropriate numbers I get 50% EV win on a Push but 45.5% on a call (100-45 = 55). How would you change the formula so that calling changes your outcome? Doesn't make sense.

[given1982]

You're butchering the EV calculations. There are a million places on the internet where you can find how to do it correctly, including a long post I made here that I'm too lazy to look up. It's probably included in one of the links on the page I linked above too.

Also, as mentioned above, SNGs are analyzed using ICM, not just pure EV.

I don't know why you're trying to reinvent the wheel when you've already found the program that does it for you.

[LedLoaf]

I would like to know because I don't wish to rely on a program to do things for me. I am not learning much by just plugging in numbers into software now am I. How am I butchering the formula? The formula is the correct formula to find the EV. There is something added to the formula when you call instead of push. I have been in search for the formula all day and yes, there is millions of sites explaining the formula for EV, but I have not seen anything adding in the difference between a call and push. My question was what and why there is a different percentage between a call and a push, which I have not came across yet.

Like I said before, I have a 50% EV when I push but a 45% EV when I call. I have found out how to get 50%, but how are they getting a different percent on the call. Yes, I know about ICM I didn't ask for help on SitNGo, was wondering strictly about the formula itself. Knowledge is power.

[couriermike]

wouldn't the difference be your fold equity?

[nawhead]

Originally Posted by couriermike

wouldn't the difference be your fold equity?

That's what I thought too. EV's always more in a push where villain can fold, which isn't the case here. So I think the numbers should be the same.

But there should be a theoretical penalty for letting yourself get blinded down to 2 bb's! Time to shit or get off the crappa!

[couriermike]

If the SB shoved and your only options are push or fold, then a push is the exact same thing as a call, and the numbers should be the same. Looks like a bug in the software. I'd post in their forum.

To get the EV preflop, get your equity vs his range from PokerStove and plug into EV formula. And don't forget the EV of folding is always zero, NOT minus what you already bet (previous bets are already gone and can't be lost by the current decision).

So say SB shoves his entire range here (which is reasonable). From Stove your equity is 42%.

So the EV of a call is:

EV = .42(4600) - .58(2800) = 1932 -1624 = 308 chips,
where 4600 = blinds + rest of his stack and 2800 = amount to call his shove.

In your third post, Ledloaf, you got your equity from the pot odds. That's not right. You always need a program like PokerStove to get equity. The SNG programs have them built in.

Also, iirc, an EV difference of under 1 pct pt is pretty marginal, so folding isn't really 'wrong'. However, these SNG ICM programs are very sensitive to the ranges you assign villain. If villain shoves entire range (ie he's a good SNG player) then folding is bad, but if he shoves only decent hands then folding is right.