I have to admit something...

[tmiby]

...I'm running wayyyy OVER EV!

This is the story:
a couple of months ago I was complaining about session were I constantly run under EV.

However, yesterday I analysed some hands. I have a total of 80k hands since december. And my green graph (net won) is much higher than my EV line...

I belive that I run something like 10 Buyins plus EV.

I'm kind of afraid that I will soon go into a big f**** downswing. But I actually like my game.

Is this explainable? Does someone have the same, or does your EV line match the net won line?
Do I just run good?

*sorry for all the suckouts*

[podbelski]

I'm still waiting for that period when I will win more than I should mathematically Usually running below... But these stats are for all-ins only, I think it does not take into account situations like when the villain hit his 2-outer on the river and it went check-check, it is just won't be tracked by all-in EV graph...

As for swings explanation, I think it's because the Poker Gods decide the outcome of every hand prior to showdown, so sometimes you have to suckout, sometimes the opponent has to suck out. To win huge, you should know when to fold worse hands and when to hold them (to hit!), which is impossible cause you can't know the board beforehand. But, if for some reason you fold most worse hands when you have to suck out, and/or opps stay in the pot when they have to suckout, the result is you running under EV, that simple

[couriermike]

It's normal. Just enjoy it. It'll go away soon.

And when you do have a downswing, it won't be because you had this upswing. They're totally independent.

[Silverthunder]

Originally Posted by couriermike

It's normal. Just enjoy it. It'll go away soon.

And when you do have a downswing, it won't be because you had this upswing. They're totally independent.

oh, nice! Courier Mike is back. You disappeared for a while. You werer the active hand poster when I started coming to this forum last summer. I learned a lot from your posts.

[Qgel]

Ignore the EV line, unless it's something really extreme. Like your green line going straight up and your EV line going straight down

It's just your all in equity, it doesn't take into account so many other factors that affect the green line that it's just worthless except for those extreme cases

An example could be a fish calling off up to 99% of his stack on the turn with a 2 outer, hitting on the river and getting the last 1% in. Your EV was huge in that hand but it won't show up in your EV graph.

So yeah.. ignore it and also don't whine when you're running below EV