2nd pr with fl dr, what to do in face of a shove?

[adam258]

2nd pr with fl dr, what to do in face of a shove? Guy had been pretty loose. Figure if I'm not ahead, I have 9 outs to the flush plus the 2 other Js and maybe even the 3 other 9s if he had say KT. What do you guys think? Obviously after timing way down, I called. He had 2 pr but u can see the looseness and why I didn't give him credit for much of a hand.

PokerStars Game #18479983264: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2008/06/30 - 04:08:05 (ET)
Table 'Lumen' 2-max Seat #2 is the button (PS it)
Seat 1: adam258 ($54.30 in chips)
Seat 2: KB at 1615 ($74.55 in chips)
KB at 1615: posts small blind $0.25
adam258: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to adam258 [Jd 9d]
KB at 1615: raises $1 to $1.50
adam258: calls $1
*** FLOP *** [Kd 4d Js]
adam258: checks
KB at 1615: bets $2
adam258: raises $5 to $7
KB at 1615: calls $5
*** TURN *** [Kd 4d Js] [7h]
adam258: bets $12
KB at 1615: raises $54.05 to $66.05 and is all-in
adam258 said, "hmmm"
adam258 said, "nice shove for starters"
adam258 said, "decision time"
adam258 said, "J with flush draw"
KB at 1615 said, "calc the odds "
adam258 said, "i've got outs"
adam258: calls $33.80 and is all-in
Uncalled bet ($20.25) returned to KB at 1615
*** RIVER *** [Kd 4d Js 7h] [8s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
adam258: shows [Jd 9d] (a pair of Jacks)
KB at 1615: shows [Ks 7s] (two pair, Kings and Sevens)
KB at 1615 collected $108.10 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $108.60 | Rake $0.50
Board [Kd 4d Js 7h 8s]
Seat 1: adam258 (big blind) showed [Jd 9d] and lost with a pair of Jacks
Seat 2: KB at 1615 (button) (small blind) showed [Ks 7s] and won ($108.10) with two pair, Kings and Sevens

[SonHouse]

I don't play HU, so I'm not the best person for advice, but can I ask you a question on your game selection.
You play .02/.05 FR .05/.10 6 max and .25/.50 HU.
Why do you play the hardest game with the highest variance for the largest buy-in and the easiest game with the least variance for the smallest buy-in?

[adam258]

I play .02/.05 FR and moved up to .05/.10 on the advice of my coach. He also suggested 6-max instead of FR. Regarding the .25/.50 HU, if you have played at Pokerstars you know this is the LOWEST AVAILABLE HU. I have emailed them for months trying to get lower HU tables but they never implement them.

[given1982]

I think this is a fold. You need 31% equity to break even on this call. You barely have that against a naked K:

Board: Kd 4d Js 7h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.818% 31.82% 00.00% 14 0.00 { Jd9d }
Hand 1: 68.182% 68.18% 00.00% 30 0.00 { AcKc }

I think that a naked K is the bottom of his turn-shoving range (if it's in his range at all), and lots of times you're going to be crushed.

Combo draws lose lots of equity on blank turns. You would have been in a great situation if you could have got the money in on the flop:

Board: Kd 4d Js
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.101% 50.10% 00.00% 496 0.00 { Jd9d }
Hand 1: 49.899% 49.90% 00.00% 494 0.00 { AcKc }

But once the turn bricks you have to be realistic about the value that your combo draw has.

[loltrickedu]

Originally Posted by given1982

I think this is a fold. You need 31% equity to break even on this call. You barely have that against a naked K:

Board: Kd 4d Js 7h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.818% 31.82% 00.00% 14 0.00 { Jd9d }
Hand 1: 68.182% 68.18% 00.00% 30 0.00 { AcKc }

I think that a naked K is the bottom of his turn-shoving range (if it's in his range at all), and lots of times you're going to be crushed.


[/SIZE][/SIZE]

this, its a fold

[no eff eks]

Um, you don't need 31% equity to make calling better than folding. You need 31% equity to break even, but folding you are not breaking even -- you're losing nearly 1/2 a buy-in.

I actually can't imagine how this can be a fold. Yes, villain's range is strong here (mostly strong Kx hands, but possibly a set), but calling really seems a lot better than folding.

Board: Kd 4d Js 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.483% 28.48% 00.00% 965 0.00 { Jd9d }
Hand 1: 71.517% 71.52% 00.00% 2423 0.00 { KK+, 77, 44, AKs, KTs+, K7s, K4s, 74s, AKo, KTo+, K4o, 74o }

If he has that range we are calling $33.80 to win $74.80. We have 28% equity which I believe means the call has an EV of ~($12).

Losing $12 is better than losing $20.50 imo.

[given1982]

Originally Posted by no eff eks

Um, you don't need 31% equity to make calling better than folding. You need 31% equity to break even, but folding you are not breaking even -- you're losing nearly 1/2 a buy-in.

I actually can't imagine how this can be a fold. Yes, villain's range is strong here (mostly strong Kx hands, but possibly a set), but calling really seems a lot better than folding.

Board: Kd 4d Js 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.483% 28.48% 00.00% 965 0.00 { Jd9d }
Hand 1: 71.517% 71.52% 00.00% 2423 0.00 { KK+, 77, 44, AKs, KTs+, K7s, K4s, 74s, AKo, KTo+, K4o, 74o }

If he has that range we are calling $33.80 to win $74.80. We have 28% equity which I believe means the call has an EV of ~($12).

Losing $12 is better than losing $20.50 imo.

You said something like this in another thread too. You have a fundamental misunderstanding of EV calculations. Hero in this hand needs 31% equity to make calling better than folding, i.e., to break even on the call, not break even on the hand. So if he calls here with 31% equity, then his EV on the call is 0, while his EV for the hand will be - 20.50, the money that he put in before this decision. Think about it this way--the pot size will be 108.60 if they get all the money in. If hero has 31% equity, then he will have $33.66 in EV, much less than the $54 he put in the pot.

EV calculations are useful because they tell you the EV of the decision you're trying to isolate. Money that you've already put into the pot isn't taken into account (other than including it in the pot that you take down when you win) because you can't get those chips back.

If hero calls with 28% equity here, then he will lose on average $3.42 = (.28)(74.8) - (.72)(33.8) each time he calls, and that's on top of the $20.50 he's lost earlier in the hand.

I'm sorry if I haven't explained this very clearly, but you are really wrong about this. Maybe Trikkur or Loltrickedu could offer a more coherent explanation if this doesn't work.

[mxrider]

I have to agree with Given here. The money that is in the pot is no longer yours and cannot be factored into any calculations other than the current pot odds that you have to make a call.

[no eff eks]

Meh, I'm bad at math apparently, but this is still a call though if you ask me. I put him on the strongest range possible and we still had 28% equity -- which means it's just barely worse than folding. If you add even a single hand that we have beat our equity goes up past where it needs to be to make the call. Given the fact that villain is "pretty loose" and 2-pair is at the top of his range I really can't imagine folding this.