Turn CRAI with top pair and double gutter

[given1982]

Villain is unknown. This is my second hand at the table (villain folded preflop the first hand). I am new to this limit, but have been doing a decent amount of datamining. The fact that I have no stats on him makes it more likely that he is not a regular. Also, his stack size and preflop play in this hand indicate that he's not that good. I decided to make this move because I think that he unthinkingly bets any pair when it's checked to him on the turn, and I don't think he's folding a J or any draw when I ship over him. Thoughts?

No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

Button ($289.60)
Hero (SB) ($436)
BB ($727.10)
UTG ($732.40)
MP ($340.50)

Preflop: Hero is SB with ,
1 fold, MP calls $4, 1 fold, Hero bets $18, 1 fold, MP calls $16

Flop: ($44) , , (2 players)
Hero bets $33, MP calls $33

Turn: ($110) (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $110, Hero raises $383 (All-In) Villain has $177.50 left

[AdrienD]

Originally Posted by given1982

Villain is unknown ...
I decided to make this move because I think that he unthinkingly bets any pair when it's checked to him on the turn

I don't think you can assume that w/o any reads.
I think most villains would bet AJ/most draws and 2p+ here but I think you lose alot of value not betting this turn cause he will often have AT/T9/JQ/JT/AJ.

Once you check this turn and he potbets it I think his range is much more polarized towards draws and 2p+ but your line is still fine as you can get value from draws that feel potcommitted, if he had more $$$ behind I think call is better though.

[Aji89]

Yeah I like it. He'd definitely see the K on the turn as a great card to follow through on a float so I'd agree he bets a really wide range on the turn and commits himself here.

[Qgel]

A turn bet would definitely be the most standard play and the best play against competent opponents but against a fish you can mix it up with a play like this. I'm still not a big fan of it since you don't know how he plays postflop. A lot of the loose passive people will check behind any weaker pair on the turn so you will lose value. Besides, he has a pure float pretty much never.

Oh and congratz on moving up to midstakes?

[postoakpoker]

I like the play because I think it causes villain to turn a lot of his weak hands into bluffs (bc villain may assume the K is a great scare card to bluff), but then the PSR is so small at this point he's forced to call with lots of his weak hands and draws. The obvious dangers here are valueowning yourself, or allowing him to get a free card on a drawy board. However it's probably a WA/WB situation and your attempt to cr the turn if he checks back could now be pot control, in a way.

[TheDeKay]

These spots are always sooo ugly without any idea of villains style. His pot sized bet scares me a bit... He could be the kind of player who just hits the pot button everytime he bets, but we do not know this yet. So I interpret his bet as 2pair+ or a draw+pair combo, that is happy to get you out, but still has some equity against most hands.... maybe a pure bluff, but pretty unlikely a AJ-type hand.

Just stoved a somewhat reasonable range for him:
Board: Js 9d 7c Kh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.234% 28.10% 02.13% 408 31.00 { KsTc }
Hand 1: 69.766% 67.63% 02.13% 982 31.00 { 99, 77, KJs, QTs, J9s+, T8s+, 97s, KJo, J9o }

So if we add some fold-equity it's an ookay-move.

[quadfive]

after catching TP here I'd look to CRAI as well, & if he checks behind it's ok too for pot control. When he checks behind i'm 90% sure my hand is good at the time