Lost with 99 bvb

[given1982]

I feel like I butchered this whole hand, but I can't really come up with a better way to play it. Villain is 19/14/2.6 over ~500 hands with 3.0% 3bet. I felt like my hand was too good to fold preflop bvb, but I have no reason to think that I can profitably 4bet/call preflop. I think c/c is the only real viable option on the flop. I was trying to decide between c/shove and c/f on the turn, but he checked back, then the river is the worst card for me to represent and the best card for him, so I thought I had to give up. I'm lost in this hand. Help.

[ShoveOrFold]

Pretty bad situation, since it looks like you were likely ahead the whole way. On that flop i think c/c is standard. On the turn i am looking at his double barrel frequency alot. This is a pretty good card for him to barrel since it helps almost his entire range + he can rep AQ, KQ. I think river is a fold. Shitty spot, but what can you do. That card helps his range a ton, and there isnt much you beat, assuming smaller pairs check it back, basically only going for busted draws. But even busted draws like KJs, QJs, AXdd, etc, got there.

I understand games are a lot weaker on UB/AP, so i might play a little diff on a diff site, but here i think its played fine. When he 3bets, cbets, checks, and then value bets river, it looks like he definitely got there. I don't think diamonds check the turn, and it seems rare for his hand not to hit that board somehow.

[Qgel]

I don't like your line tbh.

Yes, your hand is strong but the guy seems pretty nitty and straightforward based on his stats. 3% 3bet is basically only premiums so unless you think that, based on odds, it's profitable to setmine with your 99 I don't see any other reason to continue with the hand. That's also the reason you should not be C/Calling the flop also. Now if he was an aggresive 3bettor or just very aggresive in general I would like a C/shove on the flop or 4bet/call pre but not against a nit.

The fact that you're BvB doesn't mean much against this guy. I highly doubt that in BvB his 3betting range from 3% all of a sudden becomes wide open.

[TheDeKay]

Is there any history between you 2 or do you have some more reads on him?

If there is no real history/reads, I might just fold pre. If you want to gamböööl it up, you could 4bet-call or c/shove the flop or something. I really don't like to play 22-99 passiv postflop oop, since there are just so many scare cards, that he could rep and make our life hell (only if we play the "I call you no matter what"-game, to catch some random large bluffs)

[given1982]

Originally Posted by Qgel

I don't like your line tbh.

Yes, your hand is strong but the guy seems pretty nitty and straightforward based on his stats. 3% 3bet is basically only premiums so unless you think that, based on odds, it's profitable to setmine with your 99 I don't see any other reason to continue with the hand. That's also the reason you should not be C/Calling the flop also. Now if he was an aggresive 3bettor or just very aggresive in general I would like a C/shove on the flop or 4bet/call pre but not against a nit.

The fact that you're BvB doesn't mean much against this guy. I highly doubt that in BvB his 3betting range from 3% all of a sudden becomes wide open.

I totally disagree that bvb changes nothing with this villain. He is a thinking reg; he's not just a nit. His ranges are much wider bvb.

Originally Posted by TheDeKay

Is there any history between you 2 or do you have some more reads on him?

If there is no real history/reads, I might just fold pre. If you want to gamböööl it up, you could 4bet-call or c/shove the flop or something. I really don't like to play 22-99 passiv postflop oop, since there are just so many scare cards, that he could rep and make our life hell (only if we play the "I call you no matter what"-game, to catch some random large bluffs)

No real history or reads at all. I think folding preflop is the only real alternative I've come up with. I think CRAI on the flop is a terrible spew because it lets him play perfectly--he's never going to call with AK, and he's never going to fold an overpair.

[TheDeKay]

Originally Posted by given1982

No real history or reads at all. I think folding preflop is the only real alternative I've come up with. I think CRAI on the flop is a terrible spew because it lets him play perfectly--he's never going to call with AK, and he's never going to fold an overpair.

Random Thoughts:
We should have a plan pre, if we play 99 for value or as a bluff!

So it's better to c/c and then c/f on a scare card?
Why is a c/shove on the turn better than on the river with no reads?

He still has ~25% equity with two overcards here... so it's not too bad to fold those overcard hands.
We don't need to c/shove the flop to fold those most of the time. So it might be enough to c/r to ~150$ and fold, if he continues.

You do not have any reads, so it's just wrong to give up all control oop.

If you only put him on overpairs and AK here... you just should fold pre.

We maybe could donk-shove the flop to trap more money, if we think, he's able to bluff-raise.

[Qgel]

Originally Posted by given1982

I totally disagree that bvb changes nothing with this villain. He is a thinking reg; he's not just a nit. His ranges are much wider bvb.

Is that a fact or just speculation? You said yourself that you had no reads on him and no history, just datamined stats, correct? I think it is a very reasonable assumption that someone who hasn't 3bet light (he might've of course, you cant know for sure what hands make up the 3 % but, again, it's reasonable to think it was only the top 3%) over 500 hands would all of a sudden go nuts and increase his bvb 3bet range to like 10+% out of the blue.

[given1982]

Originally Posted by TheDeKay

Random Thoughts:
We should have a plan pre, if we play 99 for value or as a bluff!

So it's better to c/c and then c/f on a scare card?
Why is a c/shove on the turn better than on the river with no reads?

He still has ~25% equity with two overcards here... so it's not too bad to fold those overcard hands.
We don't need to c/shove the flop to fold those most of the time. So it might be enough to c/r to ~150$ and fold, if he continues.

You do not have any reads, so it's just wrong to give up all control oop.

If you only put him on overpairs and AK here... you just should fold pre.

We maybe could donk-shove the flop to trap more money, if we think, he's able to bluff-raise.

A lot of this is spot on. I do think c/shoving the turn is better than c/raising the flop (not that either is a particularly good play) because his turn-betting range IP will be more polarized.

Originally Posted by Qgel

Is that a fact or just speculation? You said yourself that you had no reads on him and no history, just datamined stats, correct? I think it is a very reasonable assumption that someone who hasn't 3bet light (he might've of course, you cant know for sure what hands make up the 3 % but, again, it's reasonable to think it was only the top 3%) over 500 hands would all of a sudden go nuts and increase his bvb 3bet range to like 10+% out of the blue.

It's a little bit of both. He 3bet 10% out of the big blind when facing a steal over 29 opportunities. Also, it's just much less common to see a 16/14 who plays the same ranges from every position at 400NL than it is at 50NL.

[Qgel]

I guess we could go on about this for hours..

Basically my bottom line was that a guy with 3 % overall 3bet IF he is 3betting you light in this spot, deserves enough respect that you can lay down your 99 and just let him have it, especially OOP. Once you pick up more reads on him then you can start adjusting and playing back at him, but so far he has given us no reason to do so.