To call or not?

[AdrienD]

Originally Posted by TheDeKay

Why should he valuebet AT or even AJ here and not eg A8?
+ Hands like A3 or 33 3bet the flop a good amount of the time...

I already discounted A3 and A2 by only taking one suit. (1/4 of all combos)
But you're right about the AT though, he probably will valuebet all the aces in his range here, so I guess its a good call

Originally Posted by TheDeKay

or he put me on 7x
+ If I don't bet the turn, I'm unlikely to bluff the river with a draw. So he does not lose that much "bluff-equity" by trying to push me off a K or 7.

Very little combos in your range that include 7x: 78s, 79s, 67s and thats about it I would think.

Ok, if he is trying to push you off a K then obviously he wont valuebet less than AQ or AJ.
if he is valuebetting against your KQ, KJ, KT and bluffraised pairs like 44/55/66/88/99 then he will certainly valuebet any ace in his range.
You have to decide, is he bluffing or valuebetting and then give him a range, cause he isn't doing both at the same time, so for valuebetting range I got:
Board: 3d 2d As Kc 7c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.563% 21.88% 04.69% 14 3.00 { Ad9h }
Hand 1: 73.438% 68.75% 04.69% 44 3.00 { KK+, 7d7h, 7h7s, 3d3h, 3d3s, 3h3s, 2d2h, 2d2s, 2h2s, A4s+, As3s, As2s, A7o+ }

and you need more than 29%, so it would be a fold (already discounted 33,22,A3,A2)

If you think he is bluffing you should call cause at worst you're 29% and at best 56%+

A question: what would you have done if he reraised the flop?

[TheDeKay]

Originally Posted by AdrienD

You have to decide, is he bluffing or valuebetting and then give him a range, cause he isn't doing both at the same time

??? But his range consists of bluffs and valuebets.

Originally Posted by AdrienD

A question: what would you have done if he reraised the flop?

Maybe call 20% , fold 80% or so. And it depends on how much he 3bets of course...

Edit: Thx 2 you, 4 making such an extensive analysis

[AdrienD]

Originally Posted by TheDeKay

??? But his range consists of bluffs and valuebets.

yeah I know but just decide what he will be doing most of the time.

He can't be betting Ax for value while at the same time try to get you off of a K, so you have to decide whether hes going for value or wether he is bluffing most of the time in this spot.

Originally Posted by TheDeKay

Maybe call 20% , fold 80% or so. And it depends on how much he 3bets of course...

Just saying that it would be a fked up spot cause you could easily be folding the best hand or easily calling off your whole stack against a better hand, because you would still have the best hand a good amount of the time (+40%).
Thats why the idea of raising this flop seemed spewy and I'd much rather have a slowplayed AQ/AK/AJ if I'm ever doing this.

Originally Posted by TheDeKay

Edit: Thx 2 you, 4 making such an extensive analysis

no problem, I learned a lot too.
For example, to have a profitable bluffcatcher villain doesn't have to be bluffing nearly as much as I originally thought.