To call or not?

[TheDeKay]

Well, I just want to give some action in this subforum

No real reads on villain (only 36hands at the table), but he seemed pretty aggro.
Do you like the flop-raise here?
Call or fold on the river?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (4 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

Hero (Button) ($782.80)
SB ($370.80)
BB ($80)
UTG ($400)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9, A
UTG bets $12, Hero calls $12, 2 folds

Flop: ($30) 3, A, 2 (2 players)
UTG bets $20, Hero raises to $64, UTG calls $44

Turn: ($158) K (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: ($158) 7 (2 players)
UTG bets $112, Hero ???

Total pot: $382 | Rake: $2

[given1982]

I really don't like the way you played this hand. I think preflop is a 3bet-or-fold spot. I don't really understand the flop raise--if I had to guess I'd say it was for value, but I'm not sure how often you're getting looked up by A4-A8 or 44-KK. I never get to rivers like this, so it's hard to comment on the river.

[TheDeKay]

Originally Posted by given1982

I really don't like the way you played this hand. I think preflop is a 3bet-or-fold spot. I don't really understand the flop raise--if I had to guess I'd say it was for value, but I'm not sure how often you're getting looked up by A4-A8 or 44-KK. I never get to rivers like this, so it's hard to comment on the river.

This is not my standart line of course I'm just goofing around a little bit and see what happens.

About preflop: Since it's only 4 handed, his range should be wider than A9o and I have position on him - so I'm fine with calling here from time to time. I had no reads, how he reacts to 3bets and I prefer to find that out with hands like... K6s or so

Well, basically I don't want to rep what I have. I looked him up at tableratings.com and figured he is a winning reg, so he should at least try to read my hand. By raising I rep a flushdraw or a very strong hand (at least 2pair), but never the hand I have, cause a weak A is supposed to call here.
I also thought, that if he has me beat, he'll get a turn bet out of me anyways.

So I hoped, that he thought, that my range is really polarized here and calls me with a pp or a weak A. By checking behind on the turn I basically rep a draw, that is afraid to bet again and hopes to spike one of the outs on the river, so if the river bricks off and he checks to me again, I can make a pretty light value bet.

[AdrienD]

Originally Posted by TheDeKay

This is not my standart line of course I'm just spewing around a little bit and see what happens.

About preflop: Since it's only 4 handed, his range should be wider than A9o and I have position on him - so I'm fine with calling here from time to time. I had no reads, how he reacts to 3bets and I prefer to find that out with hands like... K6s or so

Well, basically I don't want to rep what I have. I looked him up at tableratings.com and figured he is a winning reg, so he should at least try to read my hand. By raising I rep a flushdraw or a very strong hand (at least 2pair), but never the hand I have, cause a weak A is supposed to call here.

preflop: I can see how calling is OK as it is 4 handed and we have position.

flop: yeah by raising you polarize your range, but his calling range has a lot more Ax type hands that crush than hands that you beat so eventhough you might get an occasional light call, its just -EV. If you slowplayed AK or AQ preflop thats a different story.

turn: you check behind, so he puts you on either an ace with good kicker going for potcontrol & tricky, weird 2 pair/trips that is getting tricky, or a draw trying to get free river.

river: he bets out, villain probably thinks your range is very polarized here, so if he happens to have a hand like 88 he is going to check/call or check/fold.
If he had a draw, he probably won't be putting you on one and probably expects you to call 99% of the time so he wont bluff.
I think his bet is for value almost always with 22/33/AK/AQ/AJ
so I would fold.

[AdrienD]

Originally Posted by TheDeKay

Well, basically I don't want to rep what I have. I looked him up at tableratings.com and figured he is a winning reg, so he should at least try to read my hand.

If repping what you have is a concern you should be floating this flop with flushdraws & sets/2pair so you can either raise the turn or float again and see what he does on the river (he checks-bet, he bets-raise or fold)
also float 44-TT here to balance.

[TheDeKay]

Originally Posted by AdrienD

flop:[/B] yeah by raising you polarize your range, but his calling range has a lot more Ax type hands that crush than hands that you beat so eventhough you might get an occasional light call, its just -EV. If you slowplayed AK or AQ preflop thats a different story.

Hm, he is a winning reg, so we should assume, that his Co-range is pretty wide. Something like 25-30% or even more...
And since I had the feeling, that he is aggro, I think, that he might call with quite some hands that have some equity. So I'm not sure, if it's sooo -EV to raise here. I get a free river and I thought, he might get a turn bet with all his hands that beat me. I can fold vs a 3bet (and he should 3bet his very strong hands) so I don't lose that much by raising.

Originally Posted by AdrienD

turn: you check behind, so he puts you on either an ace with good kicker going for potcontrol & tricky, weird 2 pair/trips that is getting tricky, or a draw trying to get free river.

Why should he ever think, that I slowplay or potcontrol here?

Originally Posted by AdrienD

river: he bets out, villain probably thinks your range is very polarized here, so if he happens to have a hand like 88 he is going to check/call or check/fold.
If he had a draw, he probably won't be putting you on one and probably expects you to call 99% of the time so he wont bluff.
I think his bet is for value almost always with 22/33/AK/AQ/AJ
so I would fold.

My hand really looks like a draw... so I think, that he would bluff a good amount of the time with his draws.

[AdrienD]

Originally Posted by TheDeKay

Hm, he is a winning reg, so we should assume, that his Co-range is pretty wide. Something like 25-30% or even more...
And since I had the feeling, that he is aggro, I think, that he might call with quite some hands that have some equity. So I'm not sure, if it's sooo -EV to raise here.

He's OOP. Winning regs don't usually call with weak hands hoping their opponent is bluffing and will stop doing so on a later street. And like I said, even if he does some % of the time, it is hugely outweight by the times he has you crushed.

Originally Posted by TheDeKay

Why should he ever think, that I slowplay or potcontrol here?

meh, I guess you got me there
Yeah hes probably not thinking youre going to slowplay or potcontrol after raising the flop, but he is going to check to you more than 90% of the time with hands like AK/AQ/AJ/AT/KK/QQ/.. because like you said, he must think your range either beats him or you are bluffing so he will prob let you bluff again.

Originally Posted by TheDeKay

My hand really looks like a draw... so I think, that he would bluff a good amount of the time with his draws.

I just think a winning reg isnt bet/calling this flop OOP with many draws.

You are hoping he has a draw AND puts you on a draw with no reads that he actually would play any draw like this.

[TheDeKay]

Originally Posted by AdrienD

He's OOP. Winning regs don't usually call with weak hands hoping their opponent is bluffing and will stop doing so on a later street.

I don't think, this is true. Maybe at 50NL or so, where ppl tend to play straight forward. He could very easily call the flop with about anything, cause I rep such a tight range... especially if he does think, that I'm taking a shot (cause we never have played together), he might thinkt, that I about never have an A here.

Originally Posted by AdrienD

You are hoping he has a draw AND puts you on a draw with no reads that he actually would play any draw like this.

Well, he might have peeled with total air, too, and try to push me off high cards or a pair of K.

Well, as for the results... I thought about it quite some time and then decided, that I don't rep a hand, so he can 1, valuebet verrry light or 2, bluff a wide range. Since I had the impression that he was aggro, I thought that he was able to play back vs. the flop raise. So I called and he showed 44.

[AdrienD]

Originally Posted by TheDeKay

Well, he might have peeled with total air, too, and try to push me off high cards or a pair of K.

Well, as for the results... I thought about it quite some time and then decided, that I don't rep a hand, so he can 1, valuebet verrry light or 2, bluff a wide range. Since I had the impression that he was aggro, I thought that he was able to play back vs. the flop raise. So I called and he showed 44.

The fact that he showed 44 tells me he probably thought you had 55-JJ or KJ/KQ/KTs turned into pair and thought he could get you to lay it down. If he really believed you had a draw he wouldve check/called.
But you couldn't have know that before hand unless you had a read.

I don't see how you make these assumptions about villain just because you would have done that.
And like I said even if he does that sometimes, he is not going to do that 100% of the time and I have no idea on what read you base this.

I guess if you are convinced he will call that flop C/R 100% of the time with 44/55/66/88 AND bluff these 100% of the time on the river, it is ok.
Keep in mind he is probably shoving a lot of flushdraws on the flop, and the ones he isn't he couldve paired the K or have an A with them (KdQd, KdJd, AdXd, KdTd, ...) which he certainly could have played this way and which he wouldn't be betting on the river (except for Ax with good kicker or paired kicker)

Board: 3d As 2d Kc 7c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.294% 35.29% 00.00% 24 0.00 { Ad9h }
Hand 1: 64.706% 64.71% 00.00% 44 0.00 { KK+, 88-22, ATs+, A7s, As3s, As2s, ATo+ }

But if you think he will rebluff the flop instead of going for a float OOP some % of the time OR if you think he will not call the flop and bluff the river with 44/55/66/88 on the river it is bad:
Board: 3d As 2d Kc 7c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.833% 20.83% 00.00% 10 0.00 { Ad9h }
Hand 1: 79.167% 79.17% 00.00% 38 0.00 { KK+, 8d8h, 8d8s, 8h8s, 7d7h, 7d7s, 7h7s, 6d6h, 6d6s, 6h6s, 5d5h, 5h5s, 4d4h, 4h4s, 33-22, ATs+, A7s, As3s, As2s, AJo+ }

I see that its probably closer than I thought, but still looks like an obvious fold.

[TheDeKay]

Why should he valuebet AT or even AJ here and not eg A8?
+ Hands like A3 or 33 3bet the flop a good amount of the time...

Originally Posted by AdrienD

The fact that he showed 44 tells me he probably thought you had 55-JJ or KJ/KQ/KTs turned into pair and thought he could get you to lay it down. If he really believed you had a draw he wouldve check/called.
But you couldn't have know that before hand unless you had a read.

or he put me on 7x
+ If I don't bet the turn, I'm unlikely to bluff the river with a draw. So he does not lose that much "bluff-equity" by trying to push me off a K or 7.
The fact, that he showed 44 tells me, that he is playing back at this board with a pretty wird range