Fold now?

[TheDeKay]

Villain is a losing player, running 21/11/1.6 with a high WTSD. I only had the read, that he seems to use position preflop (so he opens only a few hands UTG and a lot from the button), but does not 3bet very often (I believe, he only 3bets QQ+). He seems to play pretty passiv postflop and does not bluff in somewhat good spots (e.g. he flats a Cutoff-raise from the Button /w QcTc, board comes 874-rainbow and Cutoff checks - he checks behind, turn is a 5 and it get's checked again by both...)

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

UTG ($425.30)
MP ($394)
Hero (CO) ($668)
Button ($384.90)
SB ($833.30)
BB ($508)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 4, 5
2 folds, Hero bets $14, Button calls $14, SB calls $12, 1 fold

Flop: ($46) 4, K, 3 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $24, 1 fold, SB calls $24

Turn: ($94) 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $72, SB calls $72

River: ($238) A (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $184, SB raises to $723.30 (All-In), Hero ???

[given1982]

This is a sick spot. He doesn't bluff, but what can he have that beats you? 34s? 33? As4s? That's only 7 combos. There are 9 combos of AK. So it depends on whether you think he could do this with AK. With only the information you've given, I'd probably assume that he couldn't and lay it down. But I'd feel gross about it.

P.S. make a video

[TheDeKay]

Originally Posted by given1982

P.S. make a video

*g* Well, I tried it about... 3 times, but it's sooo hard to explain all my thoughts in english + I'm not that good with explaining my thought process while playing, cause I think of quite a lot and my last trigger is almost always emotional

But I might give it a shot again, if I have more time than atm

[AdrienD]

if he were an agressive player like 22/18 with 3+ AF that you have seen bluff big before, then this could easily be a call because he could be turning 55-JJ and weak kings into bluffs or be bluffing with 56s.

But this guy is waaaay too passive for that and also way to passive to go for thin value.

His range is very narrow, but he never bluffs in this spot.

If id have to guess what he has from most likely to least it would be 33>5h6h>A4s

what happened ? did you call?

[TheDeKay]

Originally Posted by AdrienD

what happened ? did you call?

I tanked for 2 minutes... called in the last 5seconds. I was so unsure, if I really could fold the top of my range here, since he shouldn't put me on a 4 - so he might just shove AK for value, cause OMG top2pair. And I thought, that he might c/r 33 or KK on the turn to make sure the money goes in... so only hands, that beat me most of the time are AA and 6h5h...
I didn't think, that he would bluff here very often... I was more afraid, that he was raising AK for value here...

He had me beat. I can't remember what he had... but I think it was 6h5h.

[AdrienD]

Originally Posted by TheDeKay

I was so unsure, if I really could fold the top of my range here, since he shouldn't put me on a 4 - so he might just shove AK for value, cause OMG top2pair. And I thought, that he might c/r 33 or KK on the turn to make sure the money goes in...

doesn't matter if its the top of your range when your opponent can only have hands that beat you in his range.

You have to get into your opponents mind and find out what HIS motivations are, not yours.

Look at their stats, think about previous hands he played, so you can find out the why behind their actions.
Once you know why they do what they do, taking advantage becomes a whole lot easier.

This guy, judging from the stats, does not like to isolate limpers, he likes to keep the pot small preflop and his passiveness shows that he likes it this way too postflop.

He does not seem to be the guy that chases every small edge, but - as his WTSD shows- he just wants to get to showdown his hand and be happy with any win.

Thats why it would be impossible for him C/R AK on this river because he would not be able to cope with losing his stack when there are possible fullhouses and flushes out there.

As for raising the turn with KK/33, I think it is somewhat more likely this player will be scared of the flushdraw hitting so waiting for a safe river to make sure he has a lock.
(although most of the time this is the type of guy that will minreraise the turn with a set)

[TheDeKay]

Originally Posted by AdrienD

doesn't matter if its the top of your range when your opponent can only have hands that beat you in his range.

You have to get into your opponents mind and find out what HIS motivations are, not yours.

Look at their stats, think about previous hands he played, so you can find out the why behind their actions.
Once you know why they do what they do, taking advantage becomes a whole lot easier.

This guy, judging from the stats, does not like to isolate limpers, he likes to keep the pot small preflop and his passiveness shows that he likes it this way too postflop.

He does not seem to be the guy that chases every small edge, but - as his WTSD shows- he just wants to get to showdown his hand and be happy with any win.

Thats why it would be impossible for him C/R AK on this river because he would not be able to cope with losing his stack when there are possible fullhouses and flushes out there.

I thought about this during the hand. The problem with "bad" players is, that it is really hard to get into their head from time to time, cause they use another logic. I wasn't sure, if he overvalues AK in this spot.
It's 374$ to call and 962$ in the pot, so I get 2.57 to 1 => I have to be good 28% of the time.
And he has AK in his range 4 sure... So it's basically a spot, when he shoves AK for value it's an easy call, if he doesn't it's an easy fold. That's such a tough decision...
Since he 3bets KK from time to time preflop and raises 33 on the flop or turn from time to time, we still make quite a good profit, if he only shoves AKs here.

Hm, but maybe it's right to lay it down... it's such a sick spot xD

Originally Posted by AdrienD

As for raising the turn with KK/33, I think it is somewhat more likely this player will be scared of the flushdraw hitting so waiting for a safe river to make sure he has a lock.
(although most of the time this is the type of guy that will minreraise the turn with a set)

He has a lock /w 33 or KK on the turn

[AdrienD]

Originally Posted by TheDeKay

He has a lock /w 33 or KK on the turn

Oh didn't see
Yeah then I think 6h5h>A4s>KK>33 in most likely to least likely
(KK > 33 because he is more likely to slowplay KK than 33 on the turn)

You should get "Psychology of Poker" by Alan Schoonmaker.
It handles player styles and why each style plays as they do, what motivates them and how you can take advantage of that.

[TheDeKay]

Originally Posted by AdrienD

Oh didn't see
Yeah then I think 6h5h>A4s>KK>33 in most likely to least likely
(KK > 33 because he is more likely to slowplay KK than 33 on the turn)

You should get "Psychology of Poker" by Alan Schoonmaker.
It handles player styles and why each style plays as they do, what motivates them and how you can take advantage of that.

... isn't he more likely to 3bet KK pre? :P

I have this book and I think, it was sooooo boring and useless xD Didn't help my game in any way.

Well, it's always easy to say something - it's hard to do it
And it's really hard to tell, how somebody values top 2pair... and he shoves his flush here - although there were quite some FH-combos...