I turn a draw and CRAI in a 3bet pot 160bbs deep

given1982 · #1 (**permalink**) 05-21-2009, 07:58 AM

Villain is unknown to me other than the datamined stats I have on him: 22/17/3.4 over 2.6k hands with 30% ATS, 10% 4bet (over 49 opportunities), 61% fold to 3bet, and 50% fold to cbet in 3bet pots (over 10 opportunities). I figured his betting range on the turn was polarized, then when I saw his sizing I thought it was even more polarized, and I have outs against everything other than 22 and JJ. Thoughts?

ThatDeviant · #2 (**permalink**) 05-21-2009, 10:58 AM

Love it.

He floats that flop a ton IP and he'll certainly bet once you check as he knows his perceived range is right around that board and theres no way you'd check an over pair to him this deep. Helps you have equity if he calls too.

nh.

chinz · #3 (**permalink**) 05-22-2009, 10:35 AM

Quote:

theres no way you'd check an over pair to him this deep.

In 3bet pots I am cbetting and check-shoving the turn with overpairs or even top pairs(even a little deep) in HU all the time, just because people love to bluff. I don't really know how the midstakes 6max games are, but I'd assume these games got a lot of tricky players floating in 3bet pots etc.

...Isn't that "he knows you'd never check overpair here" bs a bad thing for us? If we are only repping a boat (or random 6x resteal) we are repping such a narrow range that top pairs should be snapsnapsnap-calling us. Isn't the general rule of shorthanded games that no-one ever flops anything?

given1982 · #4 (**permalink**) 05-22-2009, 10:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chinz

In 3bet pots I am cbetting and check-shoving the turn with overpairs or even top pairs(even a little deep) in HU all the time, just because people love to bluff. I don't really know how the midstakes 6max games are, but I'd assume these games got a lot of tricky players floating in 3bet pots etc.

...Isn't that "he knows you'd never check overpair here" bs a bad thing for us? If we are only repping a boat (or random 6x resteal) we are repping such a narrow range that top pairs should be snapsnapsnap-calling us. Isn't the general rule of shorthanded games that no-one ever flops anything?

I agree with this. I definitely take this line with overpairs too.

Trikkur · #5 (**permalink**) 05-23-2009, 04:41 AM

His bet is awkwardly too large. It doesn't make sense to bet that much floating here I don't think. But at the same time, I think it's a bit too much to to get value. I like your play though.

TheDeKay · #6 (**permalink**) 06-28-2009, 08:10 PM

There are only very, very few hands he's betting for value here. I think, that his 4bet% shows, that he is at least from time to time 4betting /w QQ+ preflop.
So he might have AJ from time to time, but I wouldn't really like his bet-sizing here.... His bet on the turn looks more like a bet that wants to tell you "I will ship my whole stack in on the river" so it's very possible, that there are quite some bluffs in his range.
And if he has us beat... we have some outs at least

So yeah... I'm pretty likely to make this play against this opponent, too.

quadfive · #7 (**permalink**) 07-17-2009, 08:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDeKay

There are only very, very few hands he's betting for value here. I think, that his 4bet% shows, that he is at least from time to time 4betting /w QQ+ preflop.
So he might have AJ from time to time, but I wouldn't really like his bet-sizing here.... His bet on the turn looks more like a bet that wants to tell you "I will ship my whole stack in on the river" so it's very possible, that there are quite some bluffs in his range.
And if he has us beat... we have some outs at least

So yeah... I'm pretty likely to make this play against this opponent, too.

Agreed here.

How'd it end?