Top 2 facing river minraise from fish

[given1982]

This forum needs some MSNL action.

Villain is a fish, 46/13/1.8. We have no real history. Obviously he thinks he has the best hand, but does he think that with enough worse hands to call it off here?

No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

Button ($1655.50)
Hero (SB) ($470.80)
BB ($1626.90)
UTG ($1070.50)
MP ($455.50)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, 10
3 folds, Hero bets $14, BB calls $12

Flop: ($32) 4, 6, 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $24, BB calls $24

Turn: ($80) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $58, BB calls $58

River: ($196) A (2 players)
Hero bets $135, BB raises $270

[couriermike]

You're getting 4.5:1 so you need to be right say 25% of the time.

Definitely he takes this line with 78. That's 16 hands.
He might take this line with 44, 66, 99, TT, AA. That's 11 hands. (Probably he plays sets and AA a little more aggressively but worst case scenario...) So 27 hands beat you.

So to call there needs to be at least 9 hands he could have here that you beat.

I think he does this with A4, A6 and T9 at least, and that's 18 hands. So I like a call.

Also I think sometimes the fish suspect tags of barreling them with air and will sometimes min-raise the river out of frustration because they don't want to call and look stupid and they don't want to fold after calling two streets and look stupid. So sometimes he could be bluffing here too. Not at all surprised to see 78 but I think you have to call.

[couriermike]

Correction, pot odds of 4.45:1 is 18%.

27 hand combos beat you so it's a crying call if you beat only 6 hand combos which you do if he min-raises the river with A6.

It's interesting that, because the board is so dry and he's giving such great odds, it's correct to call even if you beat only one hand.

[tmiby]

I also tend to call.

It would be nice to have some more stats and infos:
Does he like to float?
Does he slowplay often?
Did he minraise with strong hands before?

@couriermike
I discount aces in his range.
I would even add some more Ax hands...
that makes the call even more clear.

[given1982]

Originally Posted by tmiby

I also tend to call.

It would be nice to have some more stats and infos:
Does he like to float?
Does he slowplay often?
Did he minraise with strong hands before?

@couriermike
I discount aces in his range.
I would even add some more Ax hands...
that makes the call even more clear.

He folded to cbets 41%, folded to double barrels 33%, and folded to triple barrels 52%. I have no minraise stats, and I hadn't seen him minraise.

[TheDeKay]

The spot rly sucks, since a river min-raise by a weak player is like always the nuts. He should have something like 87 or a set pretty much always.
I think, that he would fold hands like A6 or A4 on the turn, so only hand we beat is T9. Since he is looking pretty much station-like I would suspect him to not even raise T9 on the river here, since he is afraid of a better 2pair or a set.
So I think, it's a fold, that rly, rly sucks...

An interesting thought: We could make a slight -EV call here, if we think that we are good from time to time, since then we can play 200BB deep vs the fish

Edit about 1 year later: Lol, that was bad advice... sry xD Seems like I didn't take his stats into account and just "played vs another opponent". Folding is pretty horrible imo! It's BvB, his range should be super, super wide so there are enough weaker hands who minraise.

[AdrienD]

I dont think he has A4/A6 that often but I do think he will have A9/T9 a lot.
I also think that he will tend to minreraise the turn with sets.

If you were getting 2 to 1 I think it would be a fold because his most likely hand is 87 and his 2nd most likely a set and we only beat A9/T9.

But with such a good price, I think he will have A9/T9 or A4/A6 often enough to make profitable call.

[urbansprawler]

I feel like I'm the only one who wants to shove. Lol.

It comes down to timing imo. If he snapraised river, this is a fold; if he thought about it for a few seconds, I would at least call.

[Silverthunder]

Originally Posted by given1982

He folded to cbets 41%, folded to double barrels 33%, and folded to triple barrels 52%. I have no minraise stats, and I hadn't seen him minraise.

So these are low percentages (sorry, I don't use a HUD), right? He is not folding much. I wonder if he is positionally aware and discounts blind on blind hand strength.

I think we just have to hope that he was calling down with 2nd pair and then hit the 2 pair (so we call). I mean those stats probably mean that he is roughly floating good draws and 2nd pair, right?

[given1982]

Originally Posted by Silverthunder

So these are low percentages (sorry, I don't use a HUD), right? He is not folding much. I wonder if he is positionally aware and discounts blind on blind hand strength.

I think we just have to hope that he was calling down with 2nd pair and then hit the 2 pair (so we call). I mean those stats probably mean that he is roughly floating good draws and 2nd pair, right?

They're very low. He doesn't fold any piece basically.