400NL - Light 3bet spot

[TheDeKay]

I can't find the HH but I remember the hand.
It's pretty much my first or second orbit and villain did nothing out of line.
I'm Bu he is Co, we both have 100BB and 6players are at the table.

He raises pre to 14$, I 3bet to 42$ with Kh9s, he thinks for a while and then calls.

Flop Kc6c4s (pot 90$)
I think, that his range is something like (pp, soome sc, maybe KQ/KJ) and I will get a bet from a pp and lose one bet to KQ/KJ anyways so I Cbet to 55$.
He thinks for a short moment and raises to 110$.
I think, that he won't turn his KQ/KJ into a bluff (or can he rly value-raise them here without history?) and maybe does this with a FD, some OESD or some random hand, since he could expect me to Cbet this board pretty often (am I too fancy here and should just fold?).
So I call his raise.

Turn Th (pot 310$; we have around 250$ left)
He checks to me, I check behind (cause at the time I just wanted to pot control. Do you think, we could shove here?)

River 4c (pot 310$)
He thinks for a moment and shoves...
I guess we should fold here, right? ^^

[AdrienD]

Originally Posted by TheDeKay

(am I too fancy here and should just fold?).
So I call his raise.

Turn Th (pot 310$; we have around 250$ left)
He checks to me, I check behind (cause at the time I just wanted to pot control. Do you think, we could shove here?)

River 4c (pot 310$)
He thinks for a moment and shoves...
I guess we should fold here, right? ^^

not too fancy at all. he couldve slowplayed AA/AK pre but thats unlikely. thats pretty much only valuehands in his range.

I like your line if you folded river. I dont think he gives up turn and then suddenly decides to bluff on a blank.

[mxrider]

I think the real decision is on the flop c/r. He min raises and leaves behind less than a psb left. I think you need to either shove or fold here.

[podbelski]

I can see (really seen but from NL25 regs) he is doing this with QQ/JJ on the flop. If he is aggressive enough it seems natural for him to try to blow you off a hand when a 3-flush hit. You checked turn so it is very unlikely you have a strong K or better. You could be drawing to a flush though.

TT is less likely on the flop yet he turned a boat and might be looking for a CRAI or that you will shove turn yourself or you are on a flushdraw and will hit by the river? He could shove river w a boat after you didn't give him a chance on the turn...unlikely, but possible imo.

Flushdraw is possible but less likely, it completed on the river, and he might be shoving to look bluffy... I just think he would either call the flop or raise bigger with a draw, just a feeling.

Some thoughts against TP+better kicker: he'd better bet the turn with such a hand instead of shoving 3-flush river.

*math here*

Personally, I would have folded, and I think it would be on the flop. Yet I hope you have called, always curious about the end)

[TheDeKay]

Originally Posted by mxrider

I think the real decision is on the flop c/r. He min raises and leaves behind less than a psb left. I think you need to either shove or fold here.

Hm, what about call on the flop with the plan to get it in on the turn? So we might catch some random bluffs.

@Podbelski: I rly don't think, that he does it /w TT-QQ... he should be more likely to do it /w AQ or so...
No, I don't think, there are many 66 type hands in his range. Imo it would be pretty bad to call 66, 44 Co vs Bu.

@All: Do you think, he could shove here /w KQ, KJ? Since I checked back the turn, I look pretty weak myself and he might figure that I have a weaker K and call him, since I might think he has a flush or nothing?

[podbelski]

KQ/KJ check-minraising to see where he is at? Once you checked behind he knows you can't dominate him and pretty much is on weaker K or mid PP? Who knows... If so, I expect him betting the turn (not a shove), yet I can find reasons why he would prefer checking the turn and shoving any river.
For me it looks like too much uncertainty + decisions based on theoretic assumptions on how this unknown plays, really tough marginal spot I would try to avoid
The river is a lottery imo

[urbansprawler]

KQ/KJ is a bit unlikely imo, and he almost certainly has a pocket pair that went for minimum value to "milk" QQ/JJ. I actually like a flop fold tbh.

[AdrienD]

Originally Posted by urbansprawler

KQ/KJ is a bit unlikely imo, and he almost certainly has a pocket pair that went for minimum value to "milk" QQ/JJ. I actually like a flop fold tbh.

folding flop is awful. we lose to so few combos that there are easily enough bluffs in his range to not fold.

This is also a good perceived cbetting flop so it is even more likely that he makes a move with some random hand here.

[urbansprawler]

No one is minraise bluffing here, and calling flop to give on a river when you're representing such a weak range with <1 PSB left is significantly worse.

[AdrienD]

no one bluffing there? I certainly do, and I have seen minraise bluffs in 3bet pots a ton. Also.. this is 400NL, not 50NL.

theres so few combos that beat us, and im not planning on folding on the turn.
river is kinda close, but the flushdraw came in. if it didnt its a snapcall imo.

Thinking about it more I like shoving turn. he couldve easily raised flop with a hand like JcTc, Tc9c, AcTc, QcJc,AcQc (which are well in his preflop calling range) and is now check/calling cause he's potcomitted. combine that with the fact that he has likely given up with pure bluffs and his value range is shoving the turn a high % of the time.

would you fold AK here too, urban? you think it is very likely that a 400NL reg calls a 3bet OOP with 44/66?