Rly ugly spot /w AA 300BB deep

[TheDeKay]

Ok, vs an usual opponent that wouldn't be that hard, but that guy is pretty much a nit.
He called 99 in position SB vs BB and called 3barrels on a drawheavy board (without raising once with no overcard to his pair).
He didn't rly value bet thin and gave up quite a lot vs steals and Cbets.

Not rly sure, what I should do on the river... (in backsight I think I would bet more on the turn, but I almost timed out thinking about a good betsize). If I shove I only get called by better hands I think - he is not a braindead callingstation.

Cake Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (6 handed) - Cake-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

UTG ($600)
MP ($1190)
Hero (CO) ($2130)
Button ($1920)
SB ($585)
BB ($600)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, A
2 folds, Hero bets $18 , Button raises to $70 , 2 folds, Hero raises to $230 , Button calls $160

Flop: ($469) 6, 5, 9
Hero bets $318, Button calls $318

Turn: ($1105) 7
Hero bets $390 , Button calls $390

River: ($1885) K

Pot is 1.900 he has about 1k left.

[mxrider]

I think I put out a small river bet here and call a shove. This looks like TT-QQ to me.

[chinz]

Originally Posted by mxrider

I think I put out a small river bet here and call a shove. This looks like TT-QQ to me.

Are you really expecting him to shove worse hands here with these stacksizes?

I'd just shove, he doesn't really have to be braindead to call here with something like JJ, people like clicking call when their hand is somewhat face up (and you could make that turn betsize to setup rivershove as bluff).

If you don't want to shove, I think check-fold is the 2nd best play.

[Qgel]

His most likely hands to get to this river are JJ and QQ and after those, KK. So now it all simply comes down to whether you think he can call here with QQ/JJ at least half the time. It's very hard to know that for sure without any specific reads. Is he the type of nit who is scared of everything postflop or is he a thinking postflop player who can read hands well? Also, how wide does he view your 4bet range is important. A lot of factors come into play here and if you don't know them you will never know what's the best play and I would simply state that both shoving and C/folding are equally good plays.

However, I would lean towards C/folding due to your history of how he played 99 in blind battle. If he's not 3betting 99 it usually simply means that his 3betting range is polarized between monsters and some random suited connectors/gappers etc. If that's true, then it is very possible that he never gets to the river this way with JJ, possibly not even QQ (highly doubt it, I mean QQ should be considered a monster by even the biggest nits) AND the "bluff" range of his 3bets pretty much smashed this board with 2pairs and straights. So that would easily narrow his range down to very little you beat and make C/folding easily the best play.

With that said, my assumptions are somewhat long-winded and likely not true. He might not even have a bluff range for example. But when 2 decisions are so close in-between it would be enough for me to choose C/folding over shoving.

And I agree that we should probably bet something committing on the turn so we wouldn't have an ugly river decision. + it looks bluffy. It seems like you're trying to represent a straight and he might think "He can't have the straight, he 4bet me pre !" and just stick it in.

[TheDeKay]

Hm, one more thing I forgot: He basically insta-called on every street like he didn't have a big decision.
From the way he played in other hands I didn't expect him to bluff the river like ever (or at least so infrequently, that it's not profitable to call).

What do you guys think of a lead of aroun 200-300$ and fold to a shove? I don't think, that he would turn a hand like JJ, QQ into a bluff in that spot and shove. And I don't think, that he has any other kind of hands in his range exept JJ+ or maybe 99, 66, 55 (not sure, if he would play them like that - especially with the 3bet preflop though...). By making such a small bet we might get a call by JJ, QQ cause he thinks "OMG, odds!" but folding to a shove will be a pain (cause "omg odds"...).
Would you prefer that line over shoving or c/f?

@mx: Why don't you think, he has KK in his range? I think calling the big 4bet with KK pre is fine, cause by 5betting he can't rly expect me to stack off with QQ.

[mxrider]

After looking this over and hearing others comments, he really shouldn't be betting anythign on the river as a bluff. Not even sure he would bet QQ here on the river. I like the idea of b/f small here. I don't like a shove on the river and don't like calling a shove either.

[Qgel]

Originally Posted by TheDeKay

Hm, one more thing I forgot: He basically insta-called on every street like he didn't have a big decision.

That really defines his hand mostly as JJ or QQ ( he should at least consider raising KK or better)

What do you guys think of a lead of around 200-300$ and fold to a shove? I don't think, that he would turn a hand like JJ, QQ into a bluff in that spot and shove.

I kinda like it actually, especially with those snap calls. I don't care about pot odds if he shoves since even if we're getting 20:1 it's still -EV to call because this opponent is probably never shoving worse.

[urbansprawler]

B/c 1/3 pot looks good to me. Shove doesn't get called by many worse hands.

Also, I hate turn sizing. Make it ~2/3 pot, he's not folding anyway. You 4b pre, so there are zero 8's in your range at this point but that's a turn you are expected to bluff anyway by weak players. Had you bet turn, you'd have a very easy river shove.

[TheDeKay]

Originally Posted by urbansprawler

B/c 1/3 pot looks good to me. Shove doesn't get called by many worse hands.

Also, I hate turn sizing. Make it ~2/3 pot, he's not folding anyway. You 4b pre, so there are zero 8's in your range at this point but that's a turn you are expected to bluff anyway by weak players. Had you bet turn, you'd have a very easy river shove.

Yes, I wish I had bet more on the turn... something like 550-750$ would've been way better. But unfortunatly cake doesn't have a timebank - so I thought too long about a good bet-size. Had to evaluate how scared he could be of an 8 and how much he would call with JJ, QQ. So yes, bad betsizing by me - I know.

Do you rly bet-call the river and expect to be good? Would you ever shove something there, that doesn't beat AA in villains spot?

[urbansprawler]

Calling is pretty gross, but you'd put villain on 3 combos (KK). Getting about 6:1 to one, we'll say you need like 15% equity to call. That means if he does this move with even one combo of anything else out of spew, exasperation, or w.e, then your call is +EV. I can't fold for those odds against a human being susceptible to emotions every once in a blue moon. Assuming a range of QQ/JJ/KK, he'd need to shove KK/QQ 10% of the time to make it +EV. You'll be pleasantly surprised every now and then as well when some retard spazzes and gets to the river with AK here. Don't forget weak players will often desperado bluff-shove QQ on this board when you've represented your hand because, lo and behold! A FOUR STRAIGHT! BLUFF TIME! and by the river all hope of their hand being good is gone so they just shove in the bleak hope you fold.

I would (gue)estimate the chance of seeing AK here or TT is around 2% for each hand and the chance of QQ/JJ shoving somewhere between 5% and 15% depending on how spewy villain is.