600NL ugly river OOP

[Qgel]

Villain is 38/27/1.2 but only a 40 hand sample. No other reads. I've been noticably active at the table but didn't showdown anything yet.

I think I meant to bet bigger on the flop but w/e. The river completes a straight and some better 2pairs. Also makes it hard to get called by even AQ. I guess the only options are to blockbet/fold or C/fold ?

Full Tilt, $3/$6 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BB: $473.20
Hero (UTG): $627
MP: $722
CO: $301.30
BTN: $643.35
SB: $716.10

Pre-Flop: Q J dealt to Hero (UTG)
Hero raises to $18, MP calls $18, 3 folds, BB calls $12

Flop: ($57) Q 2 J (3 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $36, MP calls $36, BB folds

Turn: ($129) 7 (2 Players)
Hero bets $102, MP calls $102

River: ($333) K (2 Players)
Hero ??

[podbelski]

I think unless he improved he won't be able to call another big bet, and I think you can assume the chance he will bluff is very small. And I don't think you have an option to somehow make better hand to fold here.

The question is how many worse vs better hands in his range? I'd start with assumption your hand is good on the flop/turn. Hard to imagine worse 2pairs here, so he's calling either with a draw or a made one-pair hand. BTW, what does 1.2 stand for? AF or 3b%?
I'd put QTs/KQo/AQo/JTs/KJs/AJo for paired hands into his range, and T9s/KTs for draws. Don't think he calls 2streets in that spot with TT and below or any gutters...

So the river is not too ugly IMO, cause it is harder for him to call turn bet with KJ/T9, leaving basically KQ to be mostly afraid of... I like blockbet-folding, but you should bet really small to get a call. Small bet kinda shows you have a hand but not that strong, otherwise I think you bet more (bluffs & nuts), but really I think he's way more likely just to look you up rather than bluff with AJ/AQ.

Checking is an option as well, assuming he won't vbet worse and won't turn made hand into a bluff, cause no missed draws here.

Does this make sense? I'm not giving the advice, but mostly trying to educate myself

[TheDeKay]

I think bet/fold is the best option. Since he seems fishy we can't be rly sure what hands he vbets or if he makes some weird bluffs on the river (so c/f is kind of akwayrd to me) - but I'm pretty sure that most fish don't bluff raise the river (unless we have a read, that they are rly aggro). And of course... I want some more value against weaker hands!
I guess I would bet around 90$. Looks weak enough to get called by many worse hands but does not encourage some weird move (at least I hope so xD).

@pod: I think, since villain seems like a loose fishy player he might never fold T9 here on the turn and even call KJ. And we are still afraid of 22 and 77 (in rare cases JJ-KK).

[Qgel]

It's only 40 hands though and he's sitting there with a full stack. His stats are also not indicative of a loose passive fish just yet and going more towards the TAG/LAG direction so I wouldn't be too quick to label him as a fish. So if he's not a station we're probably not even ahead 50% of the time, not to mention getting paid off by worse 50%. But I guess blockbetting like 1/3 of the pot is the way to go until further notice. And I wouldn't worry about getting raised since there are no bluffs in his range (nothing missed). He might raise QJ for value though which would suck. I guess it's just one of those very close spots that you just can't know the best play without a better read.

To Pod: 1.6 is AF