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Interesting hand. I don't think he ever has a 3 here that often, but his line does look suspiciously like a flush that was going for a check raise on the turn. On the other hand he could have a weaker king who was raising the flop to protect his hand from the flush draw, figuring thats what you have (or he decided you don't have anything on this kind of a board). He could also have something like 44's or 55's or Ax with the club ace. He could have quite a lot here. But his river bet is odd - I think he checks his small pairs to you so now he's either value betting a weaker king, a flush or he's trying to bluff you. You'd figure a player at these stakes would bet larger if he was trying to buy the pot though. So, what it comes down to for me is that we're getting 4-1, so I guess the question is do we think he has a flush/trips more than 80% of the time? I'm inclined to say 'no' and pay him off. A fold is fine though. |
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i did call on the river because of the price that he was giving me. i agree that i was not worried at all about the 3. the more that i look at the hand the more i think i should have shoved the river because if i am not worried about the 3, then he is probably raising with a mid pair and thinks i am just cbetting with nothing, or a K, or a flush draw. all of which i would want to shove on right? he ended up with the flush and he happily took my money. |
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I don't think shoving the river is a good idea. You fold what you're already beating and get called by flushes. If you're going to shove at any point during this hand it has to be on the flop, which wouldn't have been a terrible play at all because he's likely raising his flush draws.
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on the flop is what i was reffering to. The more i think about it the only hand that i am really worried about is AK, and if he has that i am probably going to pay him off most of the time anyway. and if he does have the flush i have 4 out to the full house. Do you agree with my logic that the best play is shove on the flop??
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