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  #11 (permalink)  
Old 09-20-2008, 07:11 PM
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but do you really think that he is going to fold 40% of the time. that is really high. even though he has a really low wtsd% i would think that a hand like AA or KK is going to be in that 18% range. this is really not a scary board for an overpair.
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  #12 (permalink)  
Old 09-20-2008, 07:17 PM
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how did you calculate that he needs to fold 40% of the time?

and by shoving arent we giving him really good odds to call us, instead of us having good odds to call him?
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  #13 (permalink)  
Old 09-20-2008, 08:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JibNinjas View Post
how did you calculate that he needs to fold 40% of the time?
I didn't calculate that we needed 40%, I just calculated for him folding 40% because that seemed reasonable. It took a lot of math and I'm too lazy to go over exactly how I did it... also I was probably wrong. In the end the EV of calling would be $15 and I believe that if he folds 40% to our shove our EV was $28.
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and by shoving arent we giving him really good odds to call us, instead of us having good odds to call him?
Not at all... if he's behind he's only got 2 outs usually (possibly drawing dead, possibly 8 outs), so he's not getting even close to good enough odds.
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Old 09-20-2008, 10:18 PM
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"I'd say the chances of him raising a turn bet with an overpair are about zero. This guy is pretty weak-tight judging by his stats. Since he's never raising me and might actually fold (he's got an extremely low WTSD), I think leading out is actually far better than check/call."

No effects looks like you are completely wrong in this hand.We already define that this passive postflop guy likes his hand, and that he will never fold his hand to any raise, so there is no point raising unless we have made hand better then his.
Also exactly you said he is WEAK/tight - means he won't raise again if he had some resistance before.

Last edited by R8tme; 09-20-2008 at 10:24 PM.
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Old 09-20-2008, 10:38 PM
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Originally Posted by R8tme View Post
No effects looks like you are completely wrong in this hand.We already define that this passive postflop guy likes his hand, and that he will never fold his hand to any raise, so there is no point raising unless we have made hand better then his.
Also exactly you said he is WEAK/tight - means he won't raise again if he had some resistance before.
What am I wrong about? This guy is NEVER going to raise me with just an overpair on the turn if I lead. That's absolutely true. If I check to him obviously he'll bet it because he's now comfortable that his hand is good.

Honestly I have no idea what you're talking about.
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  #16 (permalink)  
Old 09-20-2008, 10:41 PM
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Originally Posted by no eff eks View Post
I didn't calculate that we needed 40%, I just calculated for him folding 40% because that seemed reasonable. It took a lot of math and I'm too lazy to go over exactly how I did it... also I was probably wrong. In the end the EV of calling would be $15 and I believe that if he folds 40% to our shove our EV was $28.
Not at all... if he's behind he's only got 2 outs usually (possibly drawing dead, possibly 8 outs), so he's not getting even close to good enough odds.
you know i was thinking about the equity that he has against our known hand, then he would be getting odds.

but if we were on the flip side thinking that we were up against a set we would be calculating differently. so i see your point.

and i did run the math and i see how you are getting the $28.
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  #17 (permalink)  
Old 09-20-2008, 11:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JibNinjas View Post
you know i was thinking about the equity that he has against our known hand, then he would be getting odds.

but if we were on the flip side thinking that we were up against a set we would be calculating differently. so i see your point.

and i did run the math and i see how you are getting the $28.
Actually when you play math pot odds it should be only if odds are profitable.
This is not like thinking 1,2,3 thinking type of player it is more likely long run odds show profit and actually when against this type of player I try to keep pot really small, unless he folds on the flop. Cause then he won't have enough odds to do it.


So my suggedtion if this type of opponent calls you and you get scary turn card just keep it small, c/c/c/c/c/c/c/c/c.
Just keep in mind that next time he won't play you cause you are not profitable player for him.
Cause him hitting Flush 1/8 or 36%
But him hitting S8 only12%

So why would he bother against you if he is not getting right numbers.


Also I currenlty just finished beating NL5 for like 10B/100 and really I should be more, cause after each and every session I review my results and more often then not it is bad beat, sometimes I do make tilt mistakes, but still can prove it with hands if you want it
But I used to play at NL25 and NL50 , and even NL100

Also poker is not only game and hobby for me, it's more like the best thing I hand, unless GF and parents and friends
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  #18 (permalink)  
Old 09-21-2008, 12:35 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by R8tme View Post
Actually when you play math pot odds it should be only if odds are profitable.
This is not like thinking 1,2,3 thinking type of player it is more likely long run odds show profit and actually when against this type of player I try to keep pot really small, unless he folds on the flop. Cause then he won't have enough odds to do it.


So my suggedtion if this type of opponent calls you and you get scary turn card just keep it small, c/c/c/c/c/c/c/c/c.
Just keep in mind that next time he won't play you cause you are not profitable player for him.
Cause him hitting Flush 1/8 or 36%
But him hitting S8 only12%

So why would he bother against you if he is not getting right numbers.


Also I currenlty just finished beating NL5 for like 10B/100 and really I should be more, cause after each and every session I review my results and more often then not it is bad beat, sometimes I do make tilt mistakes, but still can prove it with hands if you want it
But I used to play at NL25 and NL50 , and even NL100

Also poker is not only game and hobby for me, it's more like the best thing I hand, unless GF and parents and friends
i never said to shove. i was for c/cing

if NOFX really does have a read on the guy and thinks that he will fold a decent % of the time, the shoving is fine and might be more profitable, just higher varience. but if there is not read against even a standard nit i do not feel that he will fold nearly enough to justify shoving.
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  #19 (permalink)  
Old 09-21-2008, 01:44 AM
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that's your wrong thinking, but I might be right, thoug I read it on hundrds of posts.He already called youe reraise.What else do you expect from him???
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  #20 (permalink)  
Old 09-21-2008, 10:18 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by R8tme View Post
that's your wrong thinking, but I might be right, thoug I read it on hundrds of posts.He already called youe reraise.What else do you expect from him???
are you refering to me? i do not understand how i can be wrong when we are saying the same thing.
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