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Old 09-20-2008, 02:55 PM
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Default Huge draw on turn OOP

Villain is your standard tag-fish. He's 21/5/1.7 over ~100 hands. Pre-flop his range is so weighted towards monsters that I think calling 200bb deep (229bb deep with the other guy who was a GIANT fish) is a pretty easy decision even OOP.

Flop seems like a good spot to c/r since it's missed his range and he's got a 100% c-bet... plus I've got 8 outs against an overpair.

The turn threw me off though... I had planned on just check/folding unimproved, but now I pick up another 5 outs and I don't want to fold. I was playing too many tables and timed out forcing me to check, and he bets $20. It's pretty clear he's got an overpair... call/fold/raise? Personally I like calling, but being OOP on the river makes things awkward. Should I just fold? A semi-bluff all in seems kind of sexy (guy does only go to showdown 18%), but it's probably just a huge spew.


I guess what I'm mostly wondering is if leading the turn is better than checking. Honestly I doubt I would've bet any less than $20, so checking might have saved me money... but I don't know I obviously lose all FE by checking.

Last edited by no eff eks; 09-20-2008 at 03:06 PM.
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Old 09-20-2008, 03:19 PM
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if he has an over pair then we are really getting correct odds to call even without implied odds.

56/20=2.8 so we need to be good about 26% of the time and we have about 30% equity against an overpair

Board: 4d 3s Tc 6s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.455% 70.45% 00.00% 186 0.00 { AA }
Hand 1: 29.545% 29.55% 00.00% 78 0.00 { 6d5d }

Also, being that pretty much all of your outs look like blanks, if he has an overpair he is going to stack off here pretty much 99% of the time. so if you factor in implied odds we are getting like 6 to 1 which makes this an easy call.

i would not be shoving as we are only getting pure bluffs to fold and we are pretty sure that he has an overpair by your read so he is never folding.
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Old 09-20-2008, 03:24 PM
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oh, and i think that checking was correct. if we bet we might have a little FE, but if he raises us we are screwed, and if this player is your typical nit he will check behind junk, but the fact that he called our check raise leads me to think that he has a pretty decent hand. so unless we want to lead as a blocking bet i think we are better off c/cing
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Old 09-20-2008, 04:14 PM
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I like leading the turn because you have a little bit of fold equity and because you get to set the price to see the river (I don't think he's raising much at all, even with overpairs). As it played out, villain set a cheaper price than what I would have bet (~25), but you get put in kind of a gross spot if he bets full pot.
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Old 09-20-2008, 04:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by given1982 View Post
I like leading the turn because you have a little bit of fold equity and because you get to set the price to see the river (I don't think he's raising much at all, even with overpairs). As it played out, villain set a cheaper price than what I would have bet (~25), but you get put in kind of a gross spot if he bets full pot.
that is a good point. i guess that we are not as worried about a nit raising us, so block betting can be good. i guess i would just rather close the action with a decent draw. the question then becomes do you think that he leads pot or close to pot more often then he raises us? what are our thoughts on that based on our read?
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Old 09-20-2008, 04:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by given1982 View Post
I like leading the turn because you have a little bit of fold equity and because you get to set the price to see the river (I don't think he's raising much at all, even with overpairs). As it played out, villain set a cheaper price than what I would have bet (~25), but you get put in kind of a gross spot if he bets full pot.
I probably fold if he bets full pot, but the $20 bet really makes me want to call.

The problem is that I'm really not sure if I get his whole stack if I hit on the river. The pot will be $76 and he's got $62 left -- personally I'd never put in another 144bb on the river with just AA, especially if a 5 rolls off, maybe not even a deuce. I'm OOP so I'm going to have to donk all-in on the river, so I can actually see him folding a lot.

The more I think about this the more I just wish I'd led out, but now I'm starting to convince myself I should've folded (I did call). I'm still not sure that a shove wouldn't work, am I the only person that likes that idea at all?
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Old 09-20-2008, 05:14 PM
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i think that a shove would only be read dependant. If you think that he will have a really tough time calling an allin with AA or KK then then it really would not be bad. you get a lot of FE and if he does call you have a lot of outs to beat him.

even with out the implied odds you are still getting a good enough price to call and draw. if you hit and do not believe that he will stack off then you can lead 1/2 pot or something and give him a really good price to call you down.

i would say that calling is a safer play, but if you really think that he will not stack off on the river then shoving might be a little more profitable.

i have a hard time believing that a nit would fold AA if a 5 comes on the river. that would be a massive laydown. he would really have to put you either 56 or A6 or 45 to fold to that hand.
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Old 09-20-2008, 05:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by no eff eks View Post
I probably fold if he bets full pot, but the $20 bet really makes me want to call.

The problem is that I'm really not sure if I get his whole stack if I hit on the river. The pot will be $76 and he's got $62 left -- personally I'd never put in another 144bb on the river with just AA, especially if a 5 rolls off, maybe not even a deuce. I'm OOP so I'm going to have to donk all-in on the river, so I can actually see him folding a lot.

The more I think about this the more I just wish I'd led out, but now I'm starting to convince myself I should've folded (I did call). I'm still not sure that a shove wouldn't work, am I the only person that likes that idea at all?
I think a shove is pretty bad. I think he's calling most of the time, and then you've got 25% equity. Calling is fine even if you don't always get his stack when you hit. His small turn bet gave you good direct odds.
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Old 09-20-2008, 06:07 PM
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Ok, so you was playing this hand for pot odds, so try to keep it this way profitable for you. If the turn was 4 flush draw card for you then definitely lead out and get it in, cause most of the time he has overpair and stacks off easily here and you are favourite, just run pokerstove in this scenario.
As far as you here only have open ended plus pair doesn't give you enough to lead out, cause again he will reraise more often then not, and you will have hard decision to make, cause at this point all money will go in.
So check/calling here is correct move, anyway he will stack off on the river.
As far as I noticed opponents rather afraid of flush then S8.
Also try not to block bet against rather passive player if you think he has big hand (pretty much you realized that he has big hand on the flop)
You can lead out if you have set on this board or any made hand that you think beats him, but no draws unless monster should lead out against passive player with really good hand
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Old 09-20-2008, 06:46 PM
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I'd say the chances of him raising a turn bet with an overpair are about zero. This guy is pretty weak-tight judging by his stats. Since he's never raising me and might actually fold (he's got an extremely low WTSD), I think leading out is actually far better than check/call.

I'm still stuck thinking that a CRAI wouldn't be bad. I'm new to the table and I actually don't think I've ever played this guy before (hands are probably datamined)... I won one decent pot to increase my stack from $100 to where it is now, but it did not go to showdown. If I'm doing the math right, if he folds to a shove 40% of the time I'm going to make about $13 more than if I just call his bet and try to spike something on the river.
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