Tricky spot with AA

[Richy47]

Villain is running 13/5/3over ~60 hands

First time we have really tangled so was I giving him too much credit here??

Comments on all streets welcome

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com



SB ($26.05)

BB ($35.40)

Hero ($54.70)

MP ($24.65)

Button ($25.10)



Preflop: Hero is UTG with Ad, As.

Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, Button calls $1, 2 folds.



Flop: ($2.35) 7h, 8d, 3d (2 players)

Hero bets $1.75, Button calls $1.75.



Turn: ($5.85) Th (2 players)

Hero bets $4, Button raises to $11, Hero folds.



Final Pot: $20.85

[loltrickedu]

pretty conservative, your hand is super under represented i put at least a call in on the turn if not a shove.

[given1982]

Originally Posted by loltrickedu

pretty conservative, your hand is super under represented i put at least a call in on the turn if not a shove.

I don't know how your hand could ever be underrepresented when you raised preflop and fired the flop and turn, but I agree with the advice about the line. Since villain is such a nit, he probably doesn't have any 2 pair in his range and does have lots of overpairs.

[Richy47]

Are overpairs really going to make up that much of his range here? I am getting back into the game after a long break so am only just getting used to the lines people take again....to me it seemed like a set that got scared about how drawy the board was getting?

The only overpairs that make sense are JJ and maybe QQ, as I would expect KK and sometimes QQ to 3bet preflop.

[given1982]

Originally Posted by Richy47

Are overpairs really going to make up that much of his range here? I am getting back into the game after a long break so am only just getting used to the lines people take again....to me it seemed like a set that got scared about how drawy the board was getting?

The only overpairs that make sense are JJ and maybe QQ, as I would expect KK and sometimes QQ to 3bet preflop.

The board was pretty drawy on the flop; I'd expect a raise there from a 33, 77, or 88. TT was the first villain hand I thought of after looking at the hand history, but this could also be an overpair (JJ, QQ, and maybe even sometimes KK) that got scared about how drawy the board was getting, and 99 fits too.

[Trikkur]

I'd probably CRAI on the turn here. The board is a great spot for villain to fire with something like 9T, 89, and even floats. And if he does fire with 89/9T, he will call a shove almost every time.

[Padawan]

ummm anyone care to explain to me with stats like that that we really thing he is calling an UTG raise with 89 or 910... I mean really??? I think this is a set almost always. Could be QQ or JJ...

Would love to hear why my mindset is wrong since I enjoy learning

[Qgel]

60 hands isn't a big sample He could easily be calling with suited connectors. I once ran like 8/5 or something over a similar sample size and my standart is around 21/17. Just a dry run of cards.

Oh btw, I do think this is a set quite often. Don't be surprised that villain doesn't raise the flop with possible flush draws on the board. They just love to slowplay and feel like a set is invincible + he has position. OP's hand looks very strong , too, so semibluff raising on the turn doesn't make that much sense to me, especially at these stakes. I think villain is more likely to just call with 89 or 9T. He might be raising with a huge combo draw though, something like straight draw + FD + pair.

[Padawan]

ooops didnt pay attention to how many hands.... your right Qgel still think its a set

[D3rvish]

I think this is a good fold. Pocket aces are just a pair.