QQ HU on AA9 flop -- river play

[Belwar]

Villain is 54/17/1/71. I'm playing very tight 14/12/1 because all my opens to isolate villain are getting 3 bet liberally by 2 players behind me.
Villain plays ATC and plays flops/trn randomly. I have not seen him play many rivers but lots of craziness on flops/trns.
He's limped called A3o and stacked off trn on JJ39 board for 150X. He's limp called 66 and checked down A64T9 with rvr making a runner runner FD. He's CRAI for 100X in limped pots.

I think I'm ahead on this river but do not have a plan if I bet 1/2 pot on river and get CR'd. Against these station donks, I want to get to showdown and I dont want to get CR'd off my (probably) winning hand.

In any case - do you bet here? or check behind?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button ($102.40)
SB ($53.25)
BB ($87.45)
UTG ($48.75)
Hero ($72.15)
CO ($35.20)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q, Q.
UTG calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.5, 4 folds, UTG calls $2.

Flop: ($5.75) 9, A, A (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($5.75) 3 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $4, UTG calls $4.

River: ($13.75) 2 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero ??

[nghtmare]

bet flop....

as played vb river at like $9ish, don't play scared

P.S. Don't let other players bully you. Either get up and move to a new table (I think this is the better option at NL 50, you can definitely find tables where this isn't a problem) or start 4 betting/calling those guys.

[Belwar]

Originally Posted by nghtmare

bet flop....

as played vb river at like $9ish, don't play scared

P.S. Don't let other players bully you. Either get up and move to a new table (I think this is the better option at NL 50, you can definitely find tables where this isn't a problem) or start 4 betting/calling those guys.

The goons with the liberal 3 bets didnt bother me. I just tightened up my opening range and had little difficulty adjusting to there plays.
I disagree with betting the flop. What does betting the flop accomplish? I'm probably best here but my hand can't take any heat.
The turn I bet for value.
As for the villain here. I find it hard to play against unpredictable opponents -- opponents w/o ranges. However, he was very profitable to play against.

^^

[nghtmare]

you bet the flop for value is your hand is likely best, as you said

[Trikkur]

nghtmare speaks the truth. You should be value betting, this guy is a huge station. I would look for 3x streets of value against this villain with a good pair. On the river I would be full pot to get value again.

[mrrobatto]

Against these unpredictable players, I like the check on the flop. The flop is dry enough that he could raise you and you might have to fold the best hand.

I would bet the river though, and hope to get called down by a 9 or 3. There really aren't any draws on the board, so he probably has a piece to call the turn.

If you get raised a sizable amount, I would probably fold since you don't have any reads on his river play. Although most donks probably won't raise a weak A here, its a lot harder for people to bluff on the river than on the flop/ turn.

[WhitePorcelain]

I think you should still lead that flop. Your hand is more than likely still best. with there being 2 As out already that even decreases the likelihood of him having the A whether weak or strong. He is probably on the 9 or even a spp being as he L/Ced you. Not leading the flop changes everything about what your opponent does this hand

[Belwar]

I bet $9 on the river and he CRAI. I tanked and folded -- knowing I could find a better spot to get my money in.
I still prefer to not CBet this flop against this opponent. My opponent was very likely to CR this flop, and my hand can't stand the heat.

^^