25NL: Best line w/ TP+FD

[ThatDeviant]

Villain was 20/12 over 200 hands - check raised the flop 20% of the time and folded to cbets only 20% of the time (obv not a great sample) though. No other history with him.

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 3191
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $127.35
UTG: $28.20
Hero (MP): $33.25
CO: $25.00
BTN: $27.75
SB: $56.15

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP with Q J
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.85, CO calls $0.85, 3 folds

Flop: ($2.05) 7 Q 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.75, CO raises to $4.75, Hero calls $3

Turn: ($11.55) A (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $7, Hero..



Should have jammed flop? I'm lost to what he has, he's fairly tight pre, doesn't 3bet much, so better queens are in his range, probably no two pair hands, sets obviously, and some combo draws. On the turn I'm thinking it's a failry simple fold now, but yeah, do you think shoving the flop is +ev?

EDIT: Now I look, bet folding the turn?

My heads not in it today for some reason so someone feel free to state the obvious in this hand.

[TheDeKay]

Board: Qd 9s 7s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.296% 39.95% 00.35% 5537 48.00 { QsJs }
Hand 1: 59.704% 59.36% 00.35% 8227 48.00 { 99, 77, AQs, AQo }

+ you should get some fold-equity, if he raises draws and bluffs

and even against a range of {77,99} you have 30% equity on the flop.

[Richy47]

I like a 3bet shove on that flop, as DK has shown you have pretty good equity against hands which are raising for value on that board so I would just go ahead and stick it in.