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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 02-27-2009, 07:31 PM
Hornstar's Avatar
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Default TP on A hi board facing insta turn shove

Villain is a TAG (23/18/4.8) and he knows I have been stealing the blinds a lot from him. He also seemed quite aggressive but I have not seen him get out of line much, save for isoing and blind stealing.

Do you call?
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (4 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

UTG ($14.37)
Hero (Button) ($12.95)
SB ($15.53)
BB ($10)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, Q
1 fold, Hero bets $0.35, 1 fold, BB raises to $1.10, Hero calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.25) A, 8, 6 (2 players)
BB bets $2.25, Hero calls $2.25

Turn: ($6.75) 6 (2 players)
BB bets $6.65 (All-In),
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Old 02-27-2009, 07:33 PM
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Looks like AK a lot. Doubt he 3bets weaker Ax preflop. Probably fold this out.
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Old 02-27-2009, 08:29 PM
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There are very few combos of hands that beat you. I don't know if I could fold here.
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Old 02-27-2009, 08:40 PM
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What is his 3bet % ? If it is very low you should just dump AQ preflop. Since you did call you probably assumed his range is wide enough that AQ will play well against it. In that case you just can't fold TP here since he could be doing this with AJ/ AQ himself or a draw very easily if he's aggro.
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Old 02-27-2009, 09:08 PM
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By making the call on the flop you kind of have no choice I think but to make the call on the turn.

he is way too aggressive you have to call, I just read he was has a 4.8AF and that is too high.

He's raiseing 18 percent of his hands preflop so 88, 66, A6s, A8s all fall into this range. He could be on a flush draw hoping you will fold. I think there are quite a few hands he has that could beat you and or him make the best hand if you decide to call.

I hate to call turn shoves, most of the time your just pissing money away doing it.
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Old 02-28-2009, 04:36 AM
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some timing tells might help but I never fold here. Looks like 99 TT to me.
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Old 02-28-2009, 03:53 PM
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Thanks for replies so far.

As for timing tells he insta shoved the turn. I mean, he did not think for a second! This gave me the impression that it was bluffy or that he didn't know what to do with his hand so he just shoves it in.

Does this change anything?
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Old 02-28-2009, 05:13 PM
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Yes it does Hornstar. with a fullhouse he would most likely take 1 second+ to think if he wants to check/raise, check/call and what to bet so you can discount that.
What it looks like to me is AT+, A8, KhQh, QhJh, JhTh, KhJh, KhTh QhTh and put in a bluff there like JTo cause people at this limit aren't the best players and also KK sometimes.

I would definetely call here and if you pokerstove it:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.457% 51.04% 08.42% 59431503 9798541.50 { AcQs }
Hand 1: 40.543% 32.13% 08.42% 37408086 9798541.50 { KhKs, A8s+, KhQh, KhJh, KhTh, QhJh, QhTh, JhTh, ATo+, A8o, JdTs }

you're a 60/40 favourite given that range, now if you think he is the kind to only 3bet 99+/AJ+:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.448% 35.24% 09.21% 32582613 8516124.00 { AcQs }
Hand 1: 55.552% 46.34% 09.21% 42849555 8516124.00 { KK-TT, AJs+, AJo+ }

now a tighter range where he will only shove ace and discounted AJ:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.660% 22.90% 18.76% 9804649 8028919.00 { AcQs }
Hand 1: 58.340% 39.58% 18.76% 16945113 8028919.00 { AQs+, AcJc, AsJs, AQo+, AcJd, AcJh, AcJs, AdJh, AdJs, AhJs }

still a call
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