50NL - nut no-hand call down vs. LAGfish

[AdrienD]

villain was ~60VPIP/35PFR/2.2AF over ~80 hands
So far ive seen him shove over a C/R on a rainbow K33 flop against a tight player who was defending his BB, the BB folded.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($54.10)
MP ($51.60)
Button ($48.25)
Hero (SB) ($55.30)
BB ($165.35)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q:heart:, K:heart:
UTG bets $1.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.25, 1 fold

Flop: ($3.50) J:heart:, 7:spade:, A:diamond: (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50

Turn: ($8.50) 8:heart: (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $6, Hero calls $6

River: ($20.50) 8:club: (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $15, Hero calls $15

Total pot: $50.50 | Rake: $2

[given1982]

Spewtastic.

[no eff eks]

Well the flop and turn are fine, but I'd need to have much more information than you've given to call on the river. Without knowing his barreling tendencies I'd say that calling the river is a pretty -EV.

[mahhddgtp]

What on earth are you even thinking here? Super -EV.... You're calling with King freaking high with almost zero chance to split the pot.

He's ahead of you the whole time just about.

[Qgel]

Major spew. There is nothing you beat on the river except for some weird bluff from a missed gutshot draw.

P.S. why did you include this note:

So far ive seen him shove over a C/R on a rainbow K33 flop against a tight player who was defending his BB, the BB folded.

It is not only completely irrelevant to the situation you're in this hand, it also gives us no information on his flop shoving range since you didn't get to see what hand he shoved there.

[AdrienD]

added that note because it made me choose to c/c instead of c/R but I think I shouldve just check/raised and be done unless I improve.
Yes I only have K 'fking' high but I have showdown value and he is cbetting 99% of his range here and thats HUGE. I also have alot of outs against pair of jacks and lower.
On the turn I didn't think I could C/R cause I then I rep very few made hands (AJ/77/88/A8) and alot of weak made hands and (semi)bluffs, but he doesnt seem good enough to think about what I rep so I think I shouldve either check/raised flop or now on the turn. The problem is that I'm not sure how often he barrels with air here if it is still like 80% of his range I think a raise is best here if he doesnt, a call is ok cause im pretty sure I can get paid on the river especially if I hit my straight.

Now for the river, this is a situation where he is ONLY valuebetting Ax/T9 or an eight and checking behind all his weak made hands so even if the river came KING I would be in almost EXACTLY the same situation and it doesnt matter whether I have King high or a pair of kings. I can only beat a bluff either way so its just a question of how often he barrels the TURN with his air hands cause I believe this type of player is not going to give up with air after betting an 8 turn.
I think I shouldve folded now unless I had a better read for his turn barreling range on A hi boards

(I'm going to pokerstove for my flop equity now, I'll post it later)

[chinz]

Flop might be marginal, but since you had the best high-card and gutshot you might call once... On the turn you got more outs, but still probably not enough to call (yes I know, runner-flushes are well disguished). River is just plain awful play by you, I'd blame misclick for that.

If you think that villain is able to much his hand to check-call, check-raise line, you could raise the turn... But against 60 VPIP guy I probably wouldn't do that.

The guy has 35% PFR, it's not high enough to assume that he is playing all kinds of shit from the UTG. When you think about it, he's range is most likely something like {22+, AK, AQ, AJ, AT, A9, Axs, KQ, KJ, KTs, QJ, TJs}.

Now when you take that range (which is VERY loose from UTG - 18.3%) and think about how many hands you can beat. The answer is ONE... and if he had K high too, he'd probably want to get a cheap showdown.

[AdrienD]

Board: Jh 7s Ad
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.327% 40.64% 01.69% 142425 5915.50 { KhQh }
Hand 1: 57.673% 55.98% 01.69% 196204 5915.50 { 22+, A2s+, K3s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo, T9o, 98o, 87o }

So... Calling or raising this flop isn't spew at all as you can see.

on the turn against a range of draws+ a ton of pairs:
Board: Jh 7s Ad 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.267% 35.04% 01.22% 4518 157.50 { KhQh }
Hand 1: 63.733% 62.51% 01.22% 8059 157.50 { 77+, A2s+, K8s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo, T9o, 98o, 87o }

And I only need 27.2% to call (I need to call 6 for 14.5 so thats almost 2.5 to 1)
but against a tighter range:
Board: Jh 7s Ad 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.805% 34.81% 00.00% 3752 0.00 { KhQh }
Hand 1: 65.195% 65.19% 00.00% 7028 0.00 { 77+, A2s+, K9s, QTs-Q9s, JTs, J8s, T8s+, 98s, 87s, 65s, A2o+, KTo, QTo, JTo, T9o, 98o, 87o }

still good

now removing every non top pair pair + gutshot:
Board: Jh 7s Ad 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.504% 32.50% 00.00% 3032 0.00 { KhQh }
Hand 1: 67.496% 67.50% 00.00% 6296 0.00 { 77+, A2s+, QTs, J8s, T9s, 87s, 65s, A2o+, KTo, QTo, T9o, 87o }

still getting good odds mathematicly

now with the tightest range I will try and see on river note that if I remove pair of 8 + gutshot on turn I can't add this to his range on river anymore:
Board: Jh 7s Ad 8h 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 13.736% 13.74% 00.00% 25 0.00 { KhQh }
Hand 1: 86.264% 86.26% 00.00% 157 0.00 { AA, 88-77, A2s+, QTs, J8s, T9s, 87s, 65s, A2o+, KTo, QTo, T9o, 87o }


So yeah, THIS call is major spew.
I thought there would alot more bluffs in his range honestly but apperantly this board hits alot of pairs.
Note that if river came a king:
Board: Jh 7s Ad 8h Ks
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 05.405% 05.41% 00.00% 10 0.00 { KhQh }
Hand 1: 94.595% 94.59% 00.00% 175 0.00 { AA, 88-77, A2s+, QTs, J8s, T9s, 87s, 65s, A2o+, KTo, QTo, T9o, 87o }

I have even LESS equity than with King high!

[Eldrone]

pick a better spot

thats my opinion