25nl JJoop vs flop raise

[richyl]

Button-20/19/2.3(33)
3bet-6%

Pretty sure he's 3betting QQ+ preflop, dont know about 99-1010 I think his range is mostly pairs (22-1010) some decent suited connectors (56s+), and some broadway hands. Once he raises though I guess he's repping mostly sets and flush draws, with maybe some kind of combo draw. Only 1 2pair combo he could have. Not sure what to do here.

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HAND #1
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Party Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker
BTN: $45.10 (180.4 bb)
SB: $10.90 (43.6 bb)
BB: $30.60 (122.4 bb)
UTG: $25 (100 bb)
MP: $26.70 (106.8 bb)
Hero (CO): $32.50 (130 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with J♠ J♣
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, BTN calls $0.75, 2 folds
Flop: ($1.85) T♦ 9♥ 5♦ (2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, BTN insta-raises to $4.50, [color="red"]Hero ?

[given1982]

With no history or stats to indicate that he's raising the flop light, I probably just let it go OOP.

Board: Td 9h 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.560% 35.37% 00.19% 7354 39.00 { JcJs }
Hand 1: 64.440% 64.25% 00.19% 13358 39.00 { TT-99, 55, AdJd, KdQd, KdJd, QJs, T9s, 87s, 7d6d }

[ThatDeviant]

Yeah, OOP I fold. Not many good turn cards for you and it's going to be a tough bet to call if he fires again.

[richyl]

Originally Posted by given1982

With no history or stats to indicate that he's raising the flop light, I probably just let it go OOP.

Cool, so I guess its kind of a slightly ahead/way behind kind of scenario. How does our decision change if we do have position. Whats our plan on turn/river if we decide to call the flop ch/raise, or if in fact calling is even a decent option. Is it reasonable to check back this flop?


Flop: ($1.85) T♦ 9♥ 5♦ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.50, BB raises to $4.50, [color="red"]Hero ?

[ThatDeviant]

Checking back missed value from worse hands and gives him a free shot at hitting something that beats you.

[no eff eks]

Wow, folding is just waaaaay to tight on the flop. He can easily have draws or top pair or even random mid-pairs that make a stupid raise (you see that shit all the time at $25nl).

I'd call his flop raise and check the turn... I'm showdown bound a lot of the time, but I probably give it to him should be pot the turn/river.

[ThatDeviant]

TAG's aren't raising top pair or turning middle pair into bluffs, especially in position, even at 25nl. He could have a draw here though. I don't hate calling, but folding means you don't have to make a difficult decision on the turn/river.

[given1982]

Originally Posted by no eff eks

He can easily have draws or top pair or even random mid-pairs that make a stupid raise (you see that shit all the time at $25nl).

Meh. It's been some months since I've played 25NL, but I wouldn't assume that some random TAGs flop-raising range is that wide, and OP didn't give us any reads on that. I agree that it would feel gross to fold JJ on this flop, but the way I read the OP is that villain has been totally in line up to this point. Bad turn cards for hero make up almost half the deck (diamonds and overs).

[no eff eks]

Originally Posted by ThatDeviant

TAG's aren't raising top pair or turning middle pair into bluffs, especially in position, even at 25nl. He could have a draw here though. I don't hate calling, but folding means you don't have to make a difficult decision on the turn/river.

You're giving this guy way too much credit imo... yeah, he's got solid stats, but it's over 33 hands and even guys with solid preflop stats can be really horrible post flop at 25nl.

You need to think about what he can have that beats us... QQ+ is quite unlikely, sets are unlikely (but possible)... the only kind of likely hand that beats us is T9 or a monster draw like QJdd. There are tons of draws he can have and I'd expect almost all of his Tx hands to raise this flop given how many draws are possible (and because I only expect him to call preflop with T8+).

It's kinda marginal but calling is definitely +EV which is much better than 0EV imo.

[ThatDeviant]

I played a lot of 25nl prior to the last 4 weeks (crushing it ldo) and it's super rare he's bluffing with worse here. So yeah, I've already thought about what beats us, I do it all the time in every hand. PF stats coverge very quickly compared to other stats, so I'm happy that with only 33 hands he's not doing anything spasticated post flop until proven otherwise.