Another spot with 10-10

[juvydriver]

Thanks for all the responses. I checked behind b/c I felt like he may have been slowplaying a set since it's such a popular line at this limit or something like JJ.

He, of course, showed up with 9d 8d.

[Qgel]

Originally Posted by no eff eks

His stack is too big compared to the pot to assume he's calling a shove with worse. Maybe betting small is okay, and that's probably what I'd do, but shoving is extremely marginal possibly even -EV.
If you think I'm not capable of value betting thin you might want to watch some of my videos.

I never said anything about shoving. Anyway, it seems that you agree we should value bet and that's that.

I'm also not saying you're not capable of value betting thin but judging from the fact that you want to check behind in a clear valuebet spot lead me to believe you're losing value on rivers.

Don't see this as me coming after you, I'm just criticizing your decisions and there shouldn't be anything wrong with that. We're all here to help each other out, right?

[boomswitch]

Value bet the river, even if the Q helped him he isn't going to be CRing you for value if he shows up with something like QJs, he will just c/c but there are definitely more hands in his range that he will c/c with that are worse rather than better than your hand range.

ShoveOrFold's advice of "shipping the river" should be disregarded.

btw the flop mdb (min donk bet) is either going to be a fd, like bottom/mid pair no kicker or a monster like a set but he would have c/r the turn for value with a set so this time it was either one of the weaker hands.

[AdrienD]

Originally Posted by juvydriver

I checked behind b/c I felt like he may have been slowplaying a set since it's such a popular line at this limit or something like JJ.

For a valuebet to work you don't have to beat every single hand from his range, you only need to beat more hands (that can call a bet) than hands that beat you.

[no eff eks]

Originally Posted by AdrienD

For a valuebet to work you don't have to beat every single hand from his range, you only need to beat more hands (that can call a bet) than hands that beat you.

Not true. For a value bet to work he has to call with more hands that you beat than hands that beat you.

There are many many cases where you will almost always have the best hand, but a value bet would be pure spew.

[lowkey]

how is it both spew and a value bet?

Value Bets as I understand them are +EV by definition. If your bet stands to lose more money than it makes its no longer a value bet and something else altogether....ATM bet maybe since anyone who calls gets to make a withdrawal from your account?

[ThatDeviant]

He means the times where you have the best hand almost always but value betting is pointless because the times you do get called (rarely) you'll only be getting called by better hands.

[AdrienD]

Originally Posted by no eff eks

Not true. For a value bet to work he has to call with more hands that you beat than hands that beat you.

There are many many cases where you will almost always have the best hand, but a value bet would be pure spew.

well duhhh.. I thought that was kind of obvious.

anyway I think a valuebet is not even thin here and if you don't vbet this you're giving up a lot of value. Whenever I see someone check behind 10 10 here I make a note so next time that he does bet this river its very polarized towards very strong hands or bluffs so I can call with bottom pair and own you (except if I believe you would never 3barrel bluff but then im just donkbetting every river).
Anyway the fact that villain DIDN'T raise flop or turn and DIDN'T donklead river makes sets alot less likely and 9x or weaker alot more likely.
After seeing him limp-call PF and min donkbet flop we can assume he isn't that much of a player and most likely won't fold flopped top pairs and that is why I would open shove this river (isnt that much of a overbet and fish don't care anyway)

[mojo6911]

I am am confused as to why some people think a value bet is thin here.

If he has a Queen, chances are that he will lead out, not check raise or check call.
If he has a 9, especially A9, he is calling all day long.
If he had a heart draw, he wasn't calling anyways, so you lose no value.

The only had that I see that beats us is AhQh or maybe a Qh9h. There are a ton of draws/9's that we beat that he will call with.

[no eff eks]

lol @ all you guys acting like this is an easy value bet with TT. Considering his stack size betting here is extremely awkward. If he stacks off we're almost always beat, but even a small value bet commits us to the pot.

Maybe you guys should think a little bit before mindlessly betting just because you're ahead of their range.