Profitable set mining

[postoakpoker]

Originally Posted by mksmi

I know getting into this would be off topic for this thread, but could someone explain exactly how to make the calc. to find out if set mining is the right call. Maybe start another thread about it. Thanks

The first step is to look at the effective stack sizes to see if set mining is even potentially profitable. we do this to determine if we have the correct potential implied odds (stack odds). it varies a bit from game to game and villain to villain, but I'd ideally like to see the effective stack sizes be somewhere around 16 times the amount of the bet I have to call, at the lowest end (this number is pretty hotly debated fwiw). i.e. if villain raises to $1, we'd ideally like to have the effective stack sizes be at least $16. I arrived at the approximate 1-16 ratio by considering the odds of flopping a set (~1-8 times), then considered that we won't win villain's whole stack every time we flop a set. we also won't win the pot every time we flop a set and get all the money in.

This number can fluctuate depending on several factors, such as villain's tenancies, whether the pot is multi-way (this changes the calculation), position, and depending on the stakes, your own stats/image (though you should always try to be conscious of your image no matter what the stakes, as it'll make you a better player).

I personally put a lot of weight into my perception of the villain. how many hands is he generally opening from that position? how light is he stacking off postflop? will he fire 3 streets with an overpair and call raises, or will he take pot-controlling lines (check the turn back, c/c, etc). will he fire multi-barrel bluffs and/or go too far with weak hands?

Hopefully this provides a decent groundwork to answer your question.

[mxrider]

Very well put.

[CliffLee]

Thanks for the post. I read somewhere that people use a 5 to 10 ratio. Do you think this is incorrect?

[mojo6911]

Originally Posted by CliffLee

Thanks for the post. I read somewhere that people use a 5 to 10 ratio. Do you think this is incorrect?

Since you will only hit a set 1/8 times with a pocket pair, the implied odds need to be at least 8x. When you factor that you won't always get their entire stack, it needs to be much higher. Anywhere between 10 and 20x their raise in the stack is good, IMO.

[ThatDeviant]

I prefer setmining in 4bet pots.

[Dellboy]

Great post postoakpoker

Originally Posted by CliffLee

Thanks for the post. I read somewhere that people use a 5 to 10 ratio. Do you think this is incorrect?

This is very very wrong

I'm normally looking for around 20-1 ( actual + implied odds )

or maybe 14-1 ( from each player ) if there's two or more players in the pot.

Position is also a big factor. In position you win more ( when your ahead ) and lose less ( when your behind ). Out of position ,of course the opposite is true. As such you can trim your odds when you have position on the villain(s)

postoakpoker also talked about the villains' tendencies. How tight they are is always an important factor. A tight player raising in early position is much more likely to have a big pair, and be prepared to stack off with it, than a lose player on the button. As such I'd trim my required odds a little here too - maybe 16-1 in position 18-1 from the blinds.

Like much of poker calling to set mine isn't an exact science but some rough guide lines and some experience will see you right.

[lowkey]

as I understand it the 5-10 rule assumes you're:

a: in position
b: calling an unusual raise
c: calling the raise reduces your options on the flop to shove/fold generally.

Scenario: 50NL

75 dollar effective stacks; you are on the button with 33
UTG (8/2/2) makes a 6.50 open raise. Given his stats, he's got a huge hand, and is ready to stack off. Folds to you. You're in the perfect position to call and call a shove, since if you hit your 3 without an A or K hitting the flop you will stack him almost every time. Even when A or K hits, you still have a good bit of equity, if he makes the same play with AK or QQ.

This rule works great vs players who turn their hands face up with their raise sizing. vs tricky players it's less helpful

[Dellboy]

Low Key what does the 5 and the 10 refer to then?

I'm now assuming it's not pot odds. implied or actual as the example you give is a viable scenario for set mining despite the "odds" been a little trim.

But I can see no 5s or 10s in there - or maybe I'm just being retarded... again.

[couriermike]

The 5/10 rule, if you want to follow it, is:
always set-mine for 5% of the effective stack (implied odds of 20:1), never set-mine for more than 10% of eff. stack (implied odds of 10:1). So the 5 and 10 are just percantages of the effective stack.

Using this rule, in-between is a judgment call.

[couriermike]

The 5/10 rule is a good guide for tournaments. In cash games, it's unusual not to have the implied odds to set-mine, except maybe in 3-bet pots, which I guess is what the agument was about. But I like what Trikkur and loltrickedu say and prefer not be involved in a 3-bet pot with small pps. Alot of the value of 'longshot' starting hands (small suited ace, small pp, suited connector) consists of being able to steal with them postflop, and there's less chance of that in a reraised pot, or oop.