20pl - KK on JJx board, facing river shove

[jeanpaulvalley]

$0.1/$0.2 Pot Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($35.59)
CO ($9.91)
BTN ($15.50)
Hero (SB) ($30.13)
BB ($8.61)

Pre-flop: ($0.30, 5 players) Hero is SB :kc: :kd:
UTG raises to $0.70, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2.30, 1 fold, UTG calls $1.60

Flop: :jc: :5s: :jh: ($4.80, 2 players)
Hero bets $2.80, UTG calls $2.80

Turn: :2s: ($10.40, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks

River: :9c: ($10.40, 2 players)
Hero bets $6, UTG raises to $28.40
Comments on all streets here.

The only problem I see in this hand is that I'm checking the turn to induce a bluff/get value from lower PPs. After he checks the turn through, I think his range is polarized to air/mosters, with perhaps a few very low PPs that's he's looking to show down against my AKs/AQs.

Villain has been very aggressive post flop so far, but I haven't seen him show anything terrible.

Is this a call or a fold? Is it close?

[given1982]

I think you have it exactly backwards: if villain bet the turn, then it would be more likely that his range is polarized. I would expect him to check back with lots of marginal hands.

Why are you checking the turn? The river decision as played depends on what you know about villain, and you haven't told us much. He might be shoving as a bluff because you showed weakness on the turn (by checking) and the river (with your bet-sizing).

[jeanpaulvalley]

I had assumed that he would bet the turn with his marginal hands, looking to prevent me from hitting one of the six outs he gave me on the river, and that he would check his monsters to try to let me catch up.

I'm checked the turn because I didn't think I was getting value from lower PPs outside of perhaps TT, 88, perhaps QQ once in a while. I thought that by checking the turn, I was giving him a chance to bluff with his air hands and try to protect his worse PPs.

I think your point about the river shove is dead on, and is the reason I posted this hand. I think he can take this line with his monsters, but I also think that there's an argument for not folding here, because I checked the turn to let him bluff.

Villain is bad, but I don't have a close read on him. He seems very aggressive as the PFRer, often betting 85%+ pot in 3bet pots, but I haven't seen him show down many hands, so he might just be on a heater. The one note I have on him, he 4bet TT in the BB after a minraise from EP and a button 3bet. The EP minraiser 5bet for full pot, and he called for 60%+ of his stack, then instapushed when he hit his set on the flop. So, he's not too good, but I'm not sure if he's capable of bluffing here.

Given my check on the turn, is c/c a better line on the river?

[Dellboy]

When any J beats you I think this is a fold.

Also looks like he may have 99

Alot of people at this limit love to shove with the nuts cause you only need the odd donk to call to make it more profitable than carefully value betting every time they think they're ahead.

The insta shove is more often than not the nuts.

What happened in the hand?

[no eff eks]

Bet/fold on the turn imo... as played I fold. I don't think your line is awful but b/f turn is just a better way to get value when ahead.

[jeanpaulvalley]

Thanks for the comments guys

for the record, he had 55 for the flopped boat nh

(one of my biggest leaks is working out that people either have the effective nuts or nothing, then deciding they definitely have nothing)