Now I know most people understand the concept of implied odds, but here I am going to write a short strategy segment that many people may have been overlooking.
So many of you know that you are going to need to get proper implied odds (stack sizes) in order to call a raise with a pocket pair preflop. If you don't know already, you are getting paid when you flop a set mainly due to deception. It is incredibly hard to put you on a set, therefore it is easier to stack your opponent.
This same principal applies to later streets when you have draws. Say you have As7h and after the turn the board reads 26KJ with 3 spades. Obviously you have good equity in this hand with the nutflush draw and an overcard, but I think many people overestimate their implied odds in these situations. If you are getting the direct pot odds to call a bet, you should be calling. However, if you are not getting pot odds, but you are justifying your call because of implied odds, you are over estimating your implied odds in this hand. If a spade were to come on the river, there would be 4 to a flush on the board, and it is very likely you won't be getting any more money from the villain. So from this example, you can imagine why having a flush draw with two of a suit in your hand has way more equity compared to having a flush draw with just 1 of a certain suit. This is also the reason why having a turning a backdoor flush draw on the turn gives you so much equity. It is hard for the villain to put you on the flush draw and it is easier to get paid. Compare this to having a 2 tone flop, and a 3rd of a suit peeling the turn.
I hope some of that made sense to you guys. The same principle can be applied to straight draws. This is the reason why some straight draws have way more value compared to other straight draws even if they have the same number of outs to the straight. Obviously you can imagine that having 2 to a straight in your hand has more deception (therefore more equity)than having 1 to a straight even if you have an OESD in both hands on the flop. Also, this is the reason why having deceptive straight draws have so much equity. Say you have 35ss on the bb and you call a raise from UTG. Flop comes A48 with one spade. Say for argument sake you know he has AK and is willing to go broke with it. If you are deep enough it is okay to call a cbet here even if you aren't given correct direct pot odds because of the implied odds of your hand. If a 2 peels, he would never put you on 35, and it would be easy to get a stack. Likewise, if a spade peels it will be hard to put you on a flush if you happen to hit it on the river. I hope this kind of helps you understand the value in hands with deception. Should you be calling a UTG open with 35ss probably not, but this is just an example and you may find yourself in similar scenarios.
Okay in this last part I just want to say something about direct pot odds. So everybody knows the rule of 2s and 4s. On the flop, you calculate the number of outs your have to win the pot, and multiply that by 4 to your equity. On the turn you multiply by 2. These aren't exact calculations, but they are close estimates. One problem many people have is overestimating the odds they are getting. You are multiplying your outs by 4 on the flop to get your equity, but you need to account for the fact that you are not always going to be seeing a river card for free. For example, on the flop say you have 33% equity to win. And the villain decides to bet 10 into a pot of 10. (In this example don't count implied odds for arguments sake). You are getting directly 2:1 odds therefore the math says to call right? Wrong! It is unlikely the villain will always check the turn therefore when you are deciding to call a flop bet, you need to account for the fact that he is going to be betting X amount on the turn Y percentage of the time.
Hopefully this helps some people!
06-29-2009, 01:22 AM
Implied Odds and Deception 
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