Folding an overpair on a .. not TOO scary board.?

[Spinage]

I had no reads on villain, HUD doesn't work at 2nl for some reason, and I'd only been sat there for like 15 hands whilst multitabling. (over those 15 hands -looking at it in HEM, he was 47/20/3).

At the time, I was thinking about that Baluga theorum somebody keeps reposting everywhere, but after reflection, I see that only applies to turn CHECK-raises. Still.. is he ever doing this as a bluff?

I mean, he PROBABLY calls us with a 7 on the flop right? or he might of slowplayed a set. I just don't see him calling the flop with top pair then raising it when the board pairs, it doesn't make sense, so unless it's a pure bluff we are probably drawing to two outs?

I dunno, I just feel like I am playing realllly weak recently, and I know your supposed to give credit to people, but I hate folding and need reasurrance that this is the correct play.

[chinz]

Board is very drawy and you bet only half pot on the turn, he probably would raise for value with hands like AT or KT there. He could also have 89 here, that decided to semibluff the turn... or maybe he turned flushdraw with his top pair or draw.

So yes, you do beat a lot of his range here... but I don't have any idea about NL2, if you beat enough big portion or not. That's not awful fold, but it is weak. If you would've bet normal size on the turn, I'd like the fold better.

Anyway, if the game is anything similar to what NL20 was, you probably made a good fold.

[given1982]

You could feel better about your fold if you made a bigger value bet on the turn. You can still get value from Tx and pocket pairs. I'd make it .35-.4

[Vantek]

Agree with above - you absolutely MUST bet more on the turn. Can't see myself playing like this but I'd probably fold as well if it happened. The reason? First of all and most importantly it's not like he will fold anything even if you make a decent sized bet, you simply get so much more value if you bet ~75% pot. Additionally, like chinz said, you allow him to unintentionally merge his range to the point where you're not sure what to do when he raises. If you bet more he is much less likely to raise weaker and you could be certain that if he does raise your strong bet then he beats you. As played it's pretty close really.

I think with everyone having 150-200bbs you should open bigger pre, say $0.12-0.14?

[Spinage]

Oh sorry everybody I forgot to explain my bet sizing.

On the flop, I bet for value, but on the turn, I actually expect him to have a 7 because of his flat call on the flop. I would never do this at even 10nl+ but down at 2nl I really believe that people just don't think about merging their range, or bet sizes, and the AVERAGE 2nl player underbets everything all the time anyway. So I feel as though I can feel him out with a slightly smaller bet, it lets me get off cheap and forces him to raise his good hands and let me get away from betting the river for him too.

Again, I can see why this would be really bad to do at even 10nl, but at 2nl, nobody cares about what your doing... and if they do, it's so rare I am willing to lose money to them.

This is an adaption for the limit im playing, and I really don't advocate it at any other limit... people are just playing 2nl for fun really, so I can take advantage of that in small ways like this.

If he just flat call here and a blank came on the river, I would actually bet out around 80-90% of the pot for value and still not expect to be easily 'read'.

Actually, I'd like people's opinions on this, given all what I've said, do you still think I should bet more on the turn? People don't raise the turn all that often at all, and the typical line for any draw is c/call all day and donk/bet when they hit. Very few people semibluff, and if they are going to, I give them credit for understanding it is better to do it on the flop.

[Spinage]

Originally Posted by Vantek

I think with everyone having 150-200bbs you should open bigger pre, say $0.12-0.14?

Interesting, I've never thought about that, is that like standard? Would I also do that with weaker hands?

Sorry for chatting on and on, but yes, I think now I definitely should have made a bigger turn value bet, I think at the time, I was actually thinking something like "Right, I am going to bet fold this, I WILL fold when he raises." so much so that I convinced myself he had better and bet out weak.

[no eff eks]

Bet bigger on the turn... more like 3/4 pot. Then I'd be more comfortable with folding to a raise. As it is I'm not sure that he's raising with enough worse hands to make a call correct, but I don't think calling or folding is horrible. Considering how little you knew about him at the time I think folding is probably best, but your bet size was definitely a mistake.