TPTK in 3-bet pot, betting question

[couriermike]

Villain is 12/10/4 over 800 hands. He's an OK tag but not great. He might suspect me of floating and not give me credit for the Q when I call his c-bet. I think his range here is 99+, AJ+, KQ, maybe QJ.

I think my hand is good here, but if I stack off and he comes along, I'd think I was beat. So I want to get to showdown and get value from hands like JJ and KQ, but I don't want to get check/raised and face a tough decision.

Do you bet the turn? And if so, for how much?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

SB ($10.78)
BB ($13.12)
UTG ($1.85)
MP ($3.28)
CO ($9.75)
Hero (Button) ($14.10)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, Q
3 folds, Hero bets $0.30, 1 fold, BB raises to $0.95, Hero calls $0.65

Flop: ($1.95) Q, 6, 2 (2 players)
BB bets $1.20, Hero calls $1.20

Turn: ($4.35) 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero ?

[TheDeKay]

I'm not a huge fan of the preflop call... any 3bet history with him? Cause against a 12/10 AQo is more like a fold preflop, even BTNvsBB imo...
The range you give him is 8.7%... you didn't adjust that to his preflop stats (or do you have special BB-def stats?). 8.7% is way to wide!

I think, I'd check turn and call or bet river.

[uofi2012]

I would prolly bet $3/call, and shove the riv.

You could possibly bet fold the turn if you really thought he never bluffs or shoved with worse, but I would probably never do that here.

[Daverer]

I think you're ahead of >50% of his range. IMO he has some worse queens and some worse pairs in his 'raise pre, bet flop, check turn' range whereas you're only really afraid of pocket QQ, KK or AA. I don't think you have any fold equity against better hands if you bet, so betting woud be for value.

I'm going to chuck out a theory which is off the top of my head and may be nonsense... but here goes.

Scenario 1: we bet the turn. If we get checkraised we probably have to fold and lose one bet. If he just calls then I reckon we're very likely ahead or splitting with another AQ. We can hopefully get another bet in on the river. (If he check-raises the river after calling the turn I think we're way behind and have to give it up, but I don't think that's going to happen all that often). If he calls the turn and leads out on the river I'd probably just flat call expecting to win/split it about half the time.

Scenario 2: we check the turn and try to get just one street of value. This time if he check-raises us, we can't really credit it as super-strong any more because we showed weakness on the turn, and so we probably have to call. (i.e. betting the turn gains us more reliable 'information'). If he leads out on the river than I think again it's probably a flat call and a 50/50 shot.

So.. if we bet the turn I think we can often get two bets in when we're ahead and usually only lose one when we're behind, whereas if we check the turn we're probably only getting one bet in when we're ahead and sometimes losing two when we're behind.

We also get value out of draws on the turn that we wouldn't get on the river (though there are no obvious draws out there in this case).

To cut a long rambling story short, I guess I'm advocating bet/folding the turn!

[pokerkidrjk]

ok looked at the hand a few times my thoughts:

Preflop

Initially raise $0.35- $0.40
You can mix it up, saw interesting article on 2+2 about mixing up intial raise sizes for position- and although it makes sense i would say it is more applicable to 50NL and up- my view is that at these levels you want to be building pots when you are ahead (often with AQo OTB)

Quick question- is 4 his aggro or his 3bet stat? people tend to interchange these, either way i think its a fold unless you have some 3bet history with vil.

Flop
Calling is ok- although you're not really hiding the strength of your hand, depending on his stats on you he prob doesn't think you are floating here, more likely to have a pair/set

the board is soooo dry thats the difficulty here.

It is important not just to think about the range you give your vill, but the range that the vill gives you- especially when he has quite nitty stats, since he is prob playing by his HUD/ thinking on a low level.

Turn
Two options as I see it

Check back
Vill will probs bet his PP that you beat, wanting to get value and QJ, KQ if he has these in his range-which i think is doubtful

Vill will check/fold AK, AJ etc which i think is a much larger part of his range

Bet turn
I think that this puts you to a tough decision, if he raises you are screwed since he is repping a big hand as the board is sooooo dry. I personally prefer the check back option as you give vill a chance to bluff


SIDE NOTE
On the turn vill is unlikely to call turn with a hand that you beat, if he calls then you want a showdown

I really think that checking the turn back is better and calling down probably, or betting small for value- important thing is the info you get on his 3bet from the blind range eg if he turns over 88 then you can play more confidently against him in a similar pot at a later stage
[/LIST]

[zomfgwtfbbq]

Bet turn, and if something bad comes on the river, can possibly check back. No real draws there. You also have an inside straight draw. Get value from the hand.

He could have AK and was 3-betting PF to try and fight off a steal. And followed up with c-bet. Which you called, so if he does have hands which could try and take a stand with AK AJ AT A9 KJ KQ type hands JJ TT 99 etc, you could prolly get value from the pairs and other stuff. But other than that I think you might not get action if you bet... and he has the air half of the hands he decided to 3bet with.

But then again, if he has a hand like KQ which are you ahead off anyway you'd get some value from the hands.

mmm, but what if you check the turn to induce a bet from him to bluff? But it does seem like he's just making a standard c-bet OOP, and I think you really are ahead of his entire range.

Guys help me out also? LOL I have no idea what I'm talking about..

[zomfgwtfbbq]

Originally Posted by Daverer

I think you're ahead of >50% of his range. IMO he has some worse queens and some worse pairs in his 'raise pre, bet flop, check turn' range whereas you're only really afraid of pocket QQ, KK or AA. I don't think you have any fold equity against better hands if you bet, so betting woud be for value.

I'm going to chuck out a theory which is off the top of my head and may be nonsense... but here goes.

Scenario 1: we bet the turn. If we get checkraised we probably have to fold and lose one bet. If he just calls then I reckon we're very likely ahead or splitting with another AQ. We can hopefully get another bet in on the river. (If he check-raises the river after calling the turn I think we're way behind and have to give it up, but I don't think that's going to happen all that often). If he calls the turn and leads out on the river I'd probably just flat call expecting to win/split it about half the time.

Scenario 2: we check the turn and try to get just one street of value. This time if he check-raises us, we can't really credit it as super-strong any more because we showed weakness on the turn, and so we probably have to call. (i.e. betting the turn gains us more reliable 'information'). If he leads out on the river than I think again it's probably a flat call and a 50/50 shot.

So.. if we bet the turn I think we can often get two bets in when we're ahead and usually only lose one when we're behind, whereas if we check the turn we're probably only getting one bet in when we're ahead and sometimes losing two when we're behind.

We also get value out of draws on the turn that we wouldn't get on the river (though there are no obvious draws out there in this case).

To cut a long rambling story short, I guess I'm advocating bet/folding the turn!

I should read this post before I Typed my garbage out just now..

[couriermike]

Sorry, I forgot to say he 3-bets 6% from the BB.

[uofi2012]

Ok so after reading your guys post I am gonna expand on my original line. Ok so even without any history of stealing and 3betting vs this guy, or some specific read, I think you can bet all 3 streets for value, and fold to any raises. This is 10NL and this guy is a nit.

Your image is also important here, if you are aggro, betting all three streets is super important for value. If you are also a nit, betting all three streets is obv a little thinner, but I still think its fine since a guy like this will probably play pretty straight forward. If I were playing my regular games, with my regular style, this would be an insta-"I want all my chips in the middle" mostly because it is BTN vs Blind and I have TPTK in a 3bet pot, and I usually am playing pretty aggressively and this hand is near the top of my range on this board. Also, against some thinking opponents 2barreling in a 3bet pot looks more bluffy than b flop c turn bet riv.

However this is guy looks pretty nitty and straightforward only based on his stats. Assuming this, I think he will have to c/r the turn if he has AA, KK or a set possibly donkshove the riv (which is pretty much the same line).

So bet bet vs check bet:

If you check, you might get a tiny bit more calls from underpairs on the riv if it blanks, but still only getting 2 streets of val. Also a very small part of his range, AK will sometimes hit an ace on the riv and make Aces up for you, getting at least one more bet. The drawbacks are that you are sometimes potcontrolling vs hands you dominate like KQ, and you are giving a free card to hands that will not bluff the riv such as all pocket pairs, and hands with a K in them.

Now if you bet, you are usually getting the same 2 streets from hands that would call a river bet if you checked the turn, but they also will sometimes make the crying call on the riv (think JJ). Furthermore you get max value vs dominated hands, and make worse hands forfeit their (probably small) equity (deny free cards).

[urbansprawler]

Originally Posted by couriermike

Sorry, I forgot to say he 3-bets 6% from the BB.

Then it would depend on how long you took to call the flop; if you bet here, you have to be sure opponent can't get tricky and rep a monster by c/r'ing you. You also have to be sure he'll pay you off with weak PPs. All in all, depends on his tendencies. You can hope to check and get a bluff or valuebet yourself on the river if you think he will call with some PPs or if you think he will call turn with PPs it's better to just fire turn/fire river. Also, do you float often? Or do you often fold to cbets? Think about what kind of history you have with villain. Raising flop is also good IMO as it looks so bluffy you get calls from PPs and you can get him to check turn and then hang himself on the river or at least call a bet. Either way, you get three bets into the pot whereas by calling you usually only get in two.

Preflop is also very history-dependent; I don't think AQo has enough value in this spot unless you have significant confidence in your ability to either get paid when you hit a Q or an A because of loose history or bluff him out because of tight history.