So what do I do with AK at 25NL against a tight, slightly passive player?

[Vantek]

AK is probably one of my biggest leaks. I just don't know what to do with it, which leads me to dump it in spots that are probably very profitable, and then still often end up not knowing what to do. Following situation is a very good example of why I hate this hand.

Unfortunately for some reason HEM has the questionable "stats until day of the hand" instead of the necessary "stats until moment of the hand" so I'm not sure what villain's stats were exactly. I'm assuming they were something like, 18/12/6 over like 60 hands. No other reads.

We ourselves are probably quite nitty (14/12...16/14).

Manager Hand Converter[/url] from HandHistoryConverter.com

SB ($23.14)
Button ($32.50)
Hero (MP) ($25)
UTG ($9.94)
BB ($3.44)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K, A
1 fold, Hero bets $1, Button raises $2.75, 2 folds, Hero ???

Let's start here. What the hell do I do? My first impulse is to just call and check-fold if we don't hit (I'm even calling only because it's such a small raise, if it was 3,5x or more I would seriously just fold).

[given1982]

Well, if you have no reads, I wouldn't look at villain's opening stats, because he's not opening. I would look at his button 3bet % and his fold to 4bet %.

[no eff eks]

^^^ I don't understand what you're saying at all.

Against an unknown but likely tight player I think I'd just shove here. Sure, it sucks when he shows up with KK+, but against a reasonable 3bet range you're doing pretty good (and if you get other AK hands to fold it's very +EV).

I know it's a massive overbet, and it kinda turns your hand face up... but he's most likely not calling with 22-JJ regardless (not sure if he 3bets any of those, but w/e).

Calling OOP seems really awkward and not good to me.

[uofi2012]

Depends on the dynamic and your read on him, but as a default I would just 4bet to ~$7 and call AI. His stats are kind of TAG, a little low on the PFR, and even though you are UTG, he is on the BTN, and AKo will be pretty hard to play OOP. If you 4bet to like 7, you will take it down a bunch there, and even if he 5 bet shoves, it will be 17 more into 33 and if he 5bets a range like JJ+, AK you have more than enough equity to call.

[urbansprawler]

Originally Posted by no eff eks

^^^ I don't understand what you're saying at all.

Against an unknown but likely tight player I think I'd just shove here. Sure, it sucks when he shows up with KK+, but against a reasonable 3bet range you're doing pretty good (and if you get other AK hands to fold it's very +EV).

I know it's a massive overbet, and it kinda turns your hand face up... but he's most likely not calling with 22-JJ regardless (not sure if he 3bets any of those, but w/e).

Calling OOP seems really awkward and not good to me.

Uhhh...you are mathematically giving your opponent far too good odds. He can literally fold everything but QQ-AA out of his 3-betting range and call with those three hands and your size will make it +EV for his nitty play to be prosperous. He doesn't even have to call with AK.

4-betting is the better play here IMO, but a lot of it is dependent on reads and his 3b-by-position. Calling isn't all too bad either in all honesty if you can outplay your weak opponent or you think he is 3b'ing KQs/AQ in which case you should be calling to keep his range wide.

FTR, uofi, 5betting vs another TAG jacks is terrible.

[given1982]

Originally Posted by no eff eks

^^^ I don't understand what you're saying at all.

Admittedly not my clearest bit of writing. I was saying that OP hasn't given us the relevant stats. His PFR is way less helpful than his 3bet stat would be.

[no eff eks]

Originally Posted by urbansprawler

Uhhh...you are mathematically giving your opponent far too good odds. He can literally fold everything but QQ-AA out of his 3-betting range and call with those three hands and your size will make it +EV for his nitty play to be prosperous. He doesn't even have to call with AK.

4-betting is the better play here IMO, but a lot of it is dependent on reads and his 3b-by-position. Calling isn't all too bad either in all honesty if you can outplay your weak opponent or you think he is 3b'ing KQs/AQ in which case you should be calling to keep his range wide.

FTR, uofi, 5betting vs another TAG jacks is terrible.

You're missing the point. What I want is for him to fold his 99-JJ (possibly QQ) and AK hands rather than flipping or likely splitting. His 3bet range needs to be decently wide for this to be profitable, but most TAGs will 3bet wide enough for a shove to be fine.

A smaller 4bet changes nothing except keeping in all those hands we would rather see fold (pairs, AK), so I just ship it in and make things really tough on him without KK+. I know I wouldn't be too thrilled with AKo if a tight looking tag 4bet shoved after raising from early position.

[uofi2012]

FTR, urbansprawler, 5betting JJ is not terrible vs another TAG. Against a nit? Maybe. Otherwise, it depends on the situation/table dynamic and just saying its terrible, is terrible. At 10NL or lower, more likely, but at 25NL+, there will be some light 3 or 4 betting b/w good TAG's but you definitely have to have a read. Regarding my OP, you also have enough equity as long as he will shove AK

As for jamming, I don't think it is great, because as you said it turns your hand face up, and a thinking player will often think you have exactly what you have and call with a pair assuming it is a flip, because most of the time you wouldnt overbet-shove with KK+. Furthermore, purely for range balancing, which is probably not that important here at the micros, but if I am gonna 4bet bluff ever, I would make it the same size.

[Vantek]

Against an unknown but likely tight player I think I'd just shove here. Sure, it sucks when he shows up with KK+, but against a reasonable 3bet range you're doing pretty good (and if you get other AK hands to fold it's very +EV).

Calling OOP seems really awkward and not good to me.

See, exactly. Do you think calling is worse than folding? Because if you do, then I feel I should just fold.

How can shoving possibly be better than coinflipping? There's like 4 bucks in the pot and we're sticking in 23, rake will kill A LOT of it if he calls, are AA+KK really only 10-15% of his 3betting range? I really don't think he's that aggressive.

4-betting is the better play here IMO

OK. We 4bet (small I assume, like 7.5?). What do you do if
1) he shoves
2) he calls and we don't hit?
3) he calls, we hit our K and cbet (about 60% pot right?) and he raises
4) he calls, we hit our A and cbet and he raises?

I would look at his button 3bet % and his fold to 4bet %.

Those will be meaningless over 60 hands.

if he 5bets a range like JJ+, AK

It's VERY rare of a TAG to shove JJ at 25NL, and I would not expect someone with this stats to shove QQ, often AK neither.

[mxrider]

Originally Posted by Vantek

OK. We 4bet (small I assume, like 7.5?). What do you do if
1) he shoves

We call. You can not 4bet fold in this spot. I would 4bet to 7-7.50.

2) he calls and we don't hit?

We check fold if he bets.

3) he calls, we hit our K and cbet (about 60% pot right?) and he raises?
4) he calls, we hit our A and cbet and he raises?

I would check both of these flops and crai. If we cbet it is with the intention of getting All in.

It's VERY rare of a TAG to shove JJ at 25NL, and I would not expect someone with this stats to shove QQ, often AK neither.

I agree with this statement totally. At 25nl, people generally only shove QQ+ and AK. Even with knowing that, our equity with AK is:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.824% 18.14% 20.68% 78295380 89232168.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 61.176% 40.50% 20.68% 174740892 89232168.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

With 38% equity, we have to call the 5bet shove.