What would you have done?

[silver]

Just wonder what others would have done in this situation player was a vpip of about 32 but that was over 4 hands so dont think it relevant at all so basically a unknown ill give my thoughts and let you know the results after a few replies

[given1982]

Raising this hand preflop is pretty marginal. So is the cbet (I c/f the flop a lot because no one folds on 3-to-a-wheel boards). The turn bet is good, but I think it's a fold when villain raises, because you're not getting great odds and it will be hard to get paid off when you hit because you're OOP.

[silver]

Forgot to say the table was pretty passive preflop thats why i was raising them type of hands

[urbansprawler]

Preflop is al'right but much closer to a fold, especially at 50NL. You're getting 2:1 with presumably 15 outs. Once you get called turn is a definite bet as well I think. I would def. call and then ship any diamond/Q/J.

[Lambik]

If you do decide to c-bet, c-bet a bit larger.

About the turn: If all your outs are good, you've got 15 of them, which would call for, well, a call. But some of your outs may be tainted, especially since the bet on the flop was rather small, which may have invited the other player to peel one off.

It's a fairly marginal spot, and I would vote "fold".

[silver]

so here is my thoughts on this-
i think your right about the cbet shouldnt have done it with that flop but was playing about 8 tables so kinda did it on auto

on the turn i picked up some extra outs so a bet was going to happen when he raised me by as much as he did he basically comitted himself to the pot so i started looking at implied odds i call 60 to get his whole stack if i hit and he will call down my hand so now i was looking at folding out my hand and losing what i allready placed in the pot or calling and see what came on the river so i called hoping i hit. (By the way wouldnt really do this at the higher stakes unless i am rolled enough for my stake) To cut a long story short i hit my flush bet allin and was insta called. I think in this case allthough the cbet was a mistake i think i played the rest of the hand ok.

[AdrienD]

I don't get why people think you have 12-15 outs.
eventhough this is 2NL and people can do some crazy stuff, on average an unknown at these stakes will play as most players play at 2NL which is loose and very passive.

I don't think villain in this hand is raising as a bluff more than 1% of the time. I also don't think villain is raising a one pair hand more than 15% of the time, unless it is a slowplayed overpair ofc.

If you are counting implied odds you should also count your reverse implied odds:
if you hit a Q or J, will you be able to fold ?
Also, if he has a set already (which is much more likely than a ten or any other one pair), the 4 of diamonds and 2 of diamonds are bad for you cause that would make him fullhouse/quads.

so if you always check/fold if a Q or J falls, you have 7 clean outs. thats 15%

lets assume he will call of his last dollar 100% of the time on the river, then you would need 14% to make it correct, and because 14%<15% it would be a correct call.

but we both know that you prob won't always be able to fold a Q or J and that your opponent won't call 100% of the time when you hit, so it is clearly a fold.

[urbansprawler]

Originally Posted by AdrienD

I don't get why people think you have 12-15 outs.
eventhough this is 2NL and people can do some crazy stuff, on average an unknown at these stakes will play as most players play at 2NL which is loose and very passive.

I don't think villain in this hand is raising as a bluff more than 1% of the time. I also don't think villain is raising a one pair hand more than 15% of the time, unless it is a slowplayed overpair ofc.

If you are counting implied odds you should also count your reverse implied odds:
if you hit a Q or J, will you be able to fold ?
Also, if he has a set already (which is much more likely than a ten or any other one pair), the 4 of diamonds and 2 of diamonds are bad for you cause that would make him fullhouse/quads.

so if you always check/fold if a Q or J falls, you have 7 clean outs. thats 15%

lets assume he will call of his last dollar 100% of the time on the river, then you would need 14% to make it correct, and because 14%<15% it would be a correct call.

but we both know that you prob won't always be able to fold a Q or J and that your opponent won't call 100% of the time when you hit, so it is clearly a fold.

You contradict yourself. You say they are very loose and passive and are very likely to have a set, so there is no fucking way a loose-passive 2NL'er is going to fold a set when a flush card comes on the river.

You also assign too tight of a range IMO. I can def. see villain doing this with TPTK or top pair any kicker really. At 2NL top pair = teh nuts to most of the players at the level.

[kgu1]

Pot odds are roughly 28% to call. I'm not counting a Q or J here just to be on the safe side (two pair+ is def. in villain's range). So 20% to hit the flush, but w/ implied odds, you just need another 89 cents from villain, so I'd go ahead and call. Also, at 2NL, people don't put you on backdoor flushes usually, especially with the way you played your hand, so if the flush comes, you may even be able to stack villain.

[AdrienD]

Originally Posted by urbansprawler

You contradict yourself. You say they are very loose and passive and are very likely to have a set, so there is no fucking way a loose-passive 2NL'er is going to fold a set when a flush card comes on the river.

You also assign too tight of a range IMO. I can def. see villain doing this with TPTK or top pair any kicker really. At 2NL top pair = teh nuts to most of the players at the level.

I don't contradict myself, I also said that ofcours he will have top pair some % of the time but players even at 2NL don't reraise the turn with top pair unless they are absolute donkies.

there is a huge difference between their flop reraising range and their turn reraising range.

Yes he's probably never folding a set, but if he makes a fullhouse when you make your flush, are you folding it ??

if a Q or J hits he will probably not pay you off that often with TP (which he doesnt have that often anyway) and you will lose to the set.

thats why you only have 7 real outs (no 4d or 2d), so its 7/46 = ~15.2%
.60c/4.22$ = 14.2% <-- pot odds + most optimistic implied odds.
(4.22 = pot that you will win if you get his stack 100% of time when u hit and always c/f on Q or J)