Valuetown One More Time?

[kgu1]

Don't know much about villain except that when I sat down, he only had about $6 in chips, so he wasn't a regular or semi-decent player. On this river, besides 88, 99, and possibly A7 am I getting value from any other hands? In other words, are there any worst hands that will pay me off here? Also, since more hands can beat me here, is it worth value betting (I'm shoving this river obviously if I do). I'm not being a nit, I'm just curious what others would do here.


Cake Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.20 BB (6 handed) - Cake-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($20.60)
MP ($32.87)
CO ($27.32)
Hero (Button) ($20)
SB ($35.30)
BB ($9.50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J, J
3 folds, Hero bets $0.70, 1 fold, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.50) 7, 3, 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.95, BB calls $0.95

Turn: ($3.40) 4 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.25, BB calls $2.25

River: ($7.90) 10 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero???

[urbansprawler]

Normally I wouldn't fire the river again but he's short and will talk himself into it with 87 ("lol pot odds") so go ahead and just pot it again.

[given1982]

You haven't told us anything about villain, so how should we know what worse hands he can pay off with?

Of course you should shove the river.

[chinz]

Originally Posted by urbansprawler

Normally I wouldn't fire the river again

Why? Without special reads I would valuebet this against anyone, as I would do also with 88 (or anything better than that really).

In the micros you really shouldn't worry about "what worse hands they can call with?" when you're hand is strong but it doesn't make any sense for them to call with too many worse hands. Instead you should let them decide what worse hands they call with, and take their moneys.

[nawhead]

He had A5, amirite?

I don't know about the flop. I sorta wanna slowplay here. Not much he could call with if he's got the usual KT, A9 BB defend hands.

If I slowplay, I probably bet/bet turn,river, folding to a river c/r.

If I bet flop, I think firing turn OK with the flush draw out there. But once called on turn, and Ten on river... and villain has less than 1/2 pot. If he's been sitting around for a while, I dunno if he's thinking, "whatever, I'm just gonna felt my A7 here, I'm done playing."

It's a little weak. But it comes down to the Ten. Would villain think I'm gonna use that Ten as a scare card? I wouldn't. So I'm not. So if I bet again river, I don't think I get called by A7. 88,99, well I believe 88,99 would see my turn bet as trying to take his pot and c/r AI turn. TT got me, AA/KK/QQ still good. Sets, 2 pairs, straights whatever all good.

Nothing I can rep with his stack size like I'm bluffing. I can only value bet. And I think with that Ten I'm giving my hand away since that's not slowing me down and folding out a lot of hands that might have called a blank, deuce, river.

But it's so weak to check. We got an overpair, he's all just checking and calling... giving us no real information.

Bet his stack on river, if he got us beat, it's a cooler. Nothing really we can do cause checking overpairs on fairly innocuous boards is missing too much value at these stakes.

Argh yeah I hate this spot. I really feel like I'm getting called by better majority of time. I hate that ten. We got a showdown hand. I don't know how light he can call. Let's try a pokerstove to see if math helps.

I think he's either going to get calldowny and just disregard the Ten and call with a 7 or is slowplaying.

Board: 7h 3s 2d 4s Td

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.229% 27.23% 00.00% 1805856 0.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 72.771% 72.79% 00.00% 4826775 0.00 { QQ+, TT, 77, A7s, A5s, 87s, 75s+, 65s }


Gross. It looks like a good spot but then we only have 27% equity. I was pretty liberal in putting in a lot of 7's in his range too. A breakeven spot with an overpair on river? How is this possible?

JJ... I HATE JACKS. LOL.

[edit 2]
Still, you can't check this river. I forget that sometimes villains at these stakes show up with 45 or K7 or something because there's specifically no real scare card and put you on AK. Better range.

Board: 7h 3s 2d 4s Td

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.644% 29.65% 00.00% 2380499 0.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 70.356% 70.37% 00.00% 5650154 0.00 { QQ+, TT, 77, 33-22, A7s, A5s, K7s, 87s, 75s+, 65s, 5h4h, 5s4s }

Good equity vs a guy with 1/2 pot stack. But you'll surprisingly be beat here a lot and it feels like a thin value bet spot for sure.


[edit 3]
Now same type board but Ten hi flop. Our equity changes dramatically. Much easier spot.

Board: Td 7h 3s 2d 4s

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.936% 37.94% 00.00% 2634057 0.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 62.064% 62.08% 00.00% 4309732 0.00 { QQ+, TT, 77, 33-22, ATs, A7s, A5s, KTs, QTs, JTs, 65s, ATo }

Wierd that villain calls with hands that are better relative to the board, but our equity goes up, eh?

[Vantek]

A not in the slightest unrealistic range for a 20NL halfstack:

Board: 7h 3s 2d 4s Td
Hand 0: 46.154% { JhJs }
Hand 1: 53.846% { QQ, TT-77, 33, A7s, A5s, 87s, 76s, 65s, A7o, A5o }

Get it in.

[zomfgwtfbbq]

+1 to betting his stack. It's so short just get it in.

[nawhead]

Originally Posted by Vantek

A not in the slightest unrealistic range for a 20NL halfstack:

Board: 7h 3s 2d 4s Td
Hand 0: 46.154% { JhJs }
Hand 1: 53.846% { QQ, TT-77, 33, A7s, A5s, 87s, 76s, 65s, A7o, A5o }

Get it in.

Um, you forgot to give him most of the hands we don't beat. That's kinda important.

I'm not advocating check/folding or anything. We're just losing a lot when called on the river and he will fold a 7 sometimes. So I don't mind checking and inducing him to bet worse putting us on Ace hi with spades. I think there's more value there.

So I change my mind. I think river check/call is better. It's going to weight villain's range more in our favor that way. He might even try to bluff with no pair.

[given1982]

Originally Posted by nawhead

Um, you forgot to give him most of the hands we don't beat. That's kinda important.

I'm not advocating check/folding or anything. We're just losing a lot when called on the river and he will fold a 7 sometimes. So I don't mind checking and inducing him to bet worse putting us on Ace hi with spades. I think there's more value there.

So I change my mind. I think river check/call is better. It's going to weight villain's range more in our favor that way. He might even try to bluff with no pair.

You have an overpair on a board that didn't have any draws. Villain is an unknown shorty at 20NL on Cake. Stop seeing monsters under the bed and go get some value!

[zayphod]

Originally Posted by given1982

you have an overpair on a board that didn't have any draws. Villain is an unknown shorty at 20nl on cake. Stop seeing monsters under the bed and go get some value!

+1