Should I fold QQ here?

[Total Sweetheart]

$50NL

Villain sat down about 20 hands ago, only played one big hand where he 3 bet with JJ and then called an all in with it. Also played a small pot where he called a raise pre and a cbet, then check backed the turn, and called a bet on the river, losing with a pair of Qs jack kicker to pair of Qs ace kicker.

UTG (Me), $61: QhQd, Raise to $1.75
Villain, $79.45: call 1.75
P3: FOLD
P4: call 1.75
BTN: call 1.75
SB: FOLD
BB: call

Pot: 7.25

FLOP: Td Jc 7d

Me: Bet $7
Villain: Call $7
Everyone else folds.

Pot: 21.25

TURN: Td Jc 7d Kd

I don't know what to do here. Help!

[nawhead]

You gave a pretty generic read of villain. Basic 50NL TAGgy guy with pot control line and committing pre with a hand he 3bets.

Ok, but how have you been playing and what does he know about you?

[oops, got my positions wrong, let me edit]

I doubt villain feels comfortable calling with a naked J to a 2 barrel. He might raise the King, maybe, which I think is right, which would get him to showdown cheaper and punish you for double barreling a draw. But not call, then call again, then call again.

I don't think you can get 3 streets of value vs villain here. And it sucks getting raised with 2nd pair and checking hoping villain doesn't bet again (he will).

I think check-check turn, check again and induce villain to vb river with worse is best possible scenario.

And we should fold QQ here if we got raised and villain follows with another bet. We should fold if raised on river.

checking and calling 2 more streets doesn't work because we can't control the pot because so many damn people called preflop and bloated the pot. It's basically a 3bet pot dynamic with 2 streets of betting. Basically QQ can't face much heat from this guy.

Why play so scared? Because we give him no reason to go aggrodonk on us. Or to be calling us light or making plays on us. If he aggros on us out of the blue on this hand, tough luck for us. But usually it's because he just has a hand.

But let's break this down further. Villain calls a UTG raise in UTG+1. His range is pretty much pairs possibly AKs. I don't think he wants to get in their oop with any sc type hands with possibility of the hand getting 3 bet. So if he has a J, it's most likely JJ.

So what hands of villain (pairs and AKs) calls flop if you're the preflop raiser and now betting into a bunch of people oop on a flop of TJ7?

Well that simplifies things. Check/fold QQ on flop.

"WTF nawhead!" Sorry. QQ is good for 1 street of betting at least. I can't be this nitty. Bet/fold flop. Check/fold all other streets.

[given1982]

Bet/call. You want to open fold?!

[Total Sweetheart]

Originally Posted by given1982

Bet/call. You want to open fold?!

Yes, I want to open fold.

Either that, or I was just joking and my real question is just how to proceed OOP on the turn.

Go with your read.

[nawhead]

Originally Posted by given1982

Bet/call. You want to open fold?!

Now this is the type of thinking that maybe I'm not wrapping my head around correctly. You don't serioulsy expect QQ is good the majority of time when raised on this flop. Being an overpair station, I know my QQ is never good in this spot majority of time when raised. So it's like a metagame thing, right? Don't become exploitable, don't get bluffed off overpairs and stuff, right?

[couriermike]

Villain didn't raise the flop. He's only called so far.

His range has monsters in it for sure but it also has alot of weaker pairs. We do have an overpair to the flop + oesd + 2nfd and that's alot. So I like given's bet/call line.

What do you think about check/shoving here?

[given1982]

Originally Posted by nawhead

Now this is the type of thinking that maybe I'm not wrapping my head around correctly. You don't serioulsy expect QQ is good the majority of time when raised on this flop. Being an overpair station, I know my QQ is never good in this spot majority of time when raised. So it's like a metagame thing, right? Don't become exploitable, don't get bluffed off overpairs and stuff, right?

Metagame doesn't matter at 50NL. It's just basic handreading: what better hand can he have that doesn't raise this wet flop? Maybe AQ with 1 diamond, but you've got blockers to that hand. And the villain was described by OP as pretty aggressive.

[given1982]

Originally Posted by couriermike

What do you think about check/shoving here?

I don't think you get it in good as much with this line because villain will check back a lot of the hands that you beat that might call a bet.

[nawhead]

Originally Posted by couriermike

Villain didn't raise the flop. He's only called so far.

His range has monsters in it for sure but it also has alot of weaker pairs. We do have an overpair to the flop + oesd + 2nfd and that's alot. So I like given's bet/call line.

What do you think about check/shoving here?

What weakers pairs? What hands did he call with oop to a UTG raise with players behind to act? KJs? QJs? AJs probably. KJ just got there. QJ is a little unlikely since we block the QQ.

I think the only viable 1 pair hand that would call flop and call or even bet or raise turn that we beat is AJ with the Ace of diamonds.

QJ with a Jack diamond (we got the Q diamond) which we have CRUSHED is like "ehhhh... I'm gonna bluff a King with a Jack hi flush draw!"? What happened to pot control guy? And now he's got 2nd pair with 3rd flush draw and calling again on turn? I don't think so.

We're basically value betting vs 1 specific hand. AJ with the nut flush draw, so our Q diamond is a blocker, not an out.

And again, pot control guy is taking free card with Ace of diamond or any J for that matter, not making moves when we could be checking a big hand trying for c/r.

Unlikely villain goes aggro on this turn unless he just got there or was slowplaying the flop. No need to put any more money in this pot. If he's putting more money in, he's got it far more than not.

[nawhead]

Originally Posted by given1982

Metagame doesn't matter at 50NL. It's just basic handreading: what better hand can he have that doesn't raise this wet flop? Maybe AQ with 1 diamond, but you've got blockers to that hand. And the villain was described by OP as pretty aggressive.

AJ of diamond doesn't raise this wet flop.

I'm really stumped on what worse hand of villain (other than AJ with A diamond) is raising or calling us on turn but calling in utg+1 to an utg range and then calling on flop?

AQ with 1 diamond just got there. AK with 1 diamond just got there too. And now if we bet/call, our diamond draw is no good so we're calling for a straight on a 3 flush when villain could have the nut straight already.

It's just a checklist of hands that fit preflop action and flop action that we don't beat. So putting more money in is wrong.

And any bet by us for that matter is awkward. It's a thin vb now with the King on turn. What does villain (if he's got worse) think he beats that we have? Pretty much every big pair and big broadway Ace got there. He's basically only calling with a monster now.

Villain was described as committing pre with JJ. No read on position, # of players, vs what player, what history between players, etc.. To say he's aggressive is premature. But he was described as being wary postflop with checking behind for pot control with a 1 pair hand.

Huh... I get the feeling I'm getting leveled here.