Limped pot, combo draw, villain looks committed

[nawhead]

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($1.74)
MP ($3.33)
CO ($4.73)
Button ($1.94)
SB ($5.70)
Hero (BB) ($2.44)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6, 5
3 folds, Button calls $0.05, SB calls $0.03, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.15) 7, 5, 8 (3 players)
SB bets $0.05, Hero raises to $0.20, Button calls $0.20, SB calls $0.15

Turn: ($0.75) J (3 players)
SB bets $0.50

No read. I'm shorstacking and pushing pre.

Minbet by SB, I raise, cold call from button, instacall from SB. J hits and SB no more minbet, 3/4 pot real quick.

I think it's possible SB has flop 2 pair, but I'm not convinced. Maybe just likely Turned 2 pair. Maybe just A8 type hand.

T9 maybe. minbet/call... wake up with big bet, it fits.

Now my straight draw outs are compromised.

Was my flop raise too small?

[couriermike]

With a draw to the nuts, be more inclined to call and draw as cheaply as possible rather than semi-bluff raise because most of the value of the nut draw lies in hitting and stacking someone rather than bluffing people off a smaller pot.

If you do want to raise the flop, 4x seems OK. A pot-sized raise of 30 cents would have been better tho.

On the turn, with 4th pr and non-nut str8 draw and only 3 really good outs, non-diamond 4's, I like a fold. There's way better spots.

Why are you short-stacking? You can only win what you bet.

[GreenJoker]

This flop is a shortstacks wet dream.

Raise flop ship turn.

Lesson learned dont shortstack..\thread

[Silverthunder]

Originally Posted by nawhead

T9 maybe. minbet/call... wake up with big bet, it fits.

Now my straight draw outs are compromised.

A 9To from the button should have popped it up preflop. I wouldn't be surprised at all, though, if he didn't.

YOu should fold this. Number 1, a pair of fives has no showdown value. Even if all of your outs are live (the outs are the two 5s, the four 4s, and the four 9s), you have about a 20% chance of winning at showdown. I am intentially leaving out the 2 pair outs because on such a drawy board with 2 opponents, those may give our opponents the straight.

Best case, you are putting about 1.25 more in the pot (4th st and the river) for winnings of $.75 (in pot) + $1.25 (money from an opponent on 2 streets) + $0.50 (money from an opponent on 1 street) = $2.50.

You have to pay 33% into a pot where you are only winning on average 20% of the time.

With the assumptions in these calcualtions, we are being very liberal toward calling (assuming all those outs are live, getting all those bets out of our opponents, etc) in our analysis and we still can't even come close to justifying it.

[urbansprawler]

This spot sucks. Ship flop. You gotta fold now for reasons mentioned by silverthunder.

[nawhead]

Originally Posted by urbansprawler

This spot sucks. Ship flop. You gotta fold now for reasons mentioned by silverthunder.

Ship $2.50 into a 25c pot? I'm usually sticking to a 1/7 or better stack to pot ratio for a push. Maybe I'm too tight.

I like couriermike's thinking about nut draws. Except.. I didn't have the nut draw, T9 had the nut draw. So I was correct in trying to semibluff with my 2nd nut draw according to his logic.

Turn just sucks tho 3 way. I just wanted some comfirmation. I folded.

But I don't think me being a shortstack makes this hand play much different. Would you play it differently if full stacked?

[urbansprawler]

You can either ship or call; thinking about it now, calling looks ehhhh but it's not bad as you will get odds if other players behind you put money into the pot. You can't make a middling raise though imo.

[nawhead]

Originally Posted by urbansprawler

You can either ship or call; thinking about it now, calling looks ehhhh but it's not bad as you will get odds if other players behind you put money into the pot. You can't make a middling raise though imo.

I was mehh about the piddly raise. I expect to get called there like 98.7% of time too. Mostly a pot builder. I'm not pushing there ever tho. It's just not worth it with the stack to pot ratio. This isn't a tourney, the blinds aren't going up next hand... geez.

I think call is more correct considering I'm semibluff raising but don't actually expect a fold.